mlreits
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Posted 04/26/12
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#1
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I have a mixed feeling about it. I'm glad I was able to buy some properties for cheap during this downturn & now seeing paper gain on them is fun. Nevertheless, I'm saddened that I cannot pick up more deals on the cheap. I wasn't done buying and was hoping the market would bounce along the bottom for another 3 years. Now it appears that the window of housing opportunity is closing up fast. I guess I have to wait for this window of opportunity to reopen. Well, it is what it is. 
Hope the window of housing opportunity will reopen after the November election. I guess it's time to go fishing. 
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kaihacker
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Posted 04/26/12
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#2
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I was hoping for another deal or so but I am pretty happy with everything I got over the past year.
I am always looking and working at it...I am sure I will pick up a deal or two this year.
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CGabhart
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ptiemann
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Posted 04/26/12
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#4
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I have lots of regrets. I had maybe 4 or 5 houses during the past 4 years where I thought these would be good rentals. I kept selling them for profit.
Those 4 or 5, they were not attractive to an owner occupant, I had to sell them to landlords but they fetched good rent, think purchase price $230k including repairs, location downtown San Jose, gross rent $3000 or so
I wish I had kept some of those but I needed the money at the time. What really irks me, is that those 4 or 5, they did not make me any money. Like the one for 230k after repairs, I sold for 255k to a cash buyer.. fire sale.
I try to buy rentals now but I'm late to the game.
Santa Clara County had 0 trustee sales today. It used to be ~30. 90 were scheduled (used to be 200), 15 cancellations and 75 postponed.
I think that is the first time that I have seen zero sales in this county. Even on 12/24/ they had at least a handful.
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CGabhart
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Posted 04/27/12
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#5
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Must be a trick the banks are trying to play Peter playing hide the property.
Interesting that no trustee sales are happening even after the settlement with the banks giving them a green light to start going again with foreclosures.
Interesting times, as an optimist I want to be "optimistic" but I am also a realist and skeptical person by nature.
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mlreits
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Posted 04/27/12
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#6
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Peter,
Oh that sucks. You could probably be able to pull out all the cash through a refinance had you hung onto those properties till now.
I wouldn't say you're too late to buy rental properties, but the profit margin is definitely getting squeezed.
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BelvedereCS
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Posted 04/27/12
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#7
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Lots of wild cards, lots of inventory banks are sitting on.
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mlreits
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Posted 04/27/12
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#8
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Well, banks are much smarter at playing this game now compared to late 08 and early 09. I remember it was out right chaotic. It seems like lenders would approve any short sale at almost any price that was 1/2 way reasonable. It was truly blood running in the street at that time. A complete contrast compared to the loose lending during the boom.
Several members of my family and my wife's family were fortunately enough to capitalize on this down turn. Apparently many members of this board were able to capitalize on this down turn too. Now it seems like business as usual. All the easy money has been made.
Were there flips that you wish you would have hang onto? Any regrets? My only regret was that I should have been more aggressive in buying at the steps last year.
As Peter said, there is practically not that many sales at the steps, and the people are paying crazy prices now. One can only hope.
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kaihacker
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Posted 04/27/12
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#9
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I personally prefer investing when it hard to buy and easy to sell.
But I did enjoy the couple years of "low fruit".
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CGabhart
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Posted 04/27/12
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#10
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Usually it's hard to buy because it's easy to sell right? and vice versa?
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kaihacker
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Posted 04/27/12
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#11
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Yea Curtis, I prefer the sellers market over a buyers market. I know how to buy low, and fix up things on the cheap...for me selling for top $$ has always been the crux.
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abc
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Registered: 01/24/09
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Posted 04/27/12
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#12
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I think this prolonged period of extreme low inventory we are in caught most everyone by surprise. I can't think of any gurus that called this. So far I regret not being more aggressive with rentals earlier. But we'll see how things go from here.
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abc
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Posted 04/27/12
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#13
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http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/wsj-on-housing-bidding-wars-are-back.html
WSJ article...bidding wars are back in FL, AZ and CA. Are we at a true bottom or is this another "head fake" bear market rally bought on by low inventory like the tax credit frenzy of spring of 2010? I remember there were bidding wars during the tax credit. But this one feels a little different. Oh where oh where is that inventory gonna come from???
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CGabhart
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Posted 04/27/12
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#14
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I agree gene. Just ckarifying.
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RobertCampbell
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Posted 04/27/12
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#15
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Quote: Originally Posted by abchttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/wsj-on-housing-bidding-wars-are-back.html
WSJ article...bidding wars are back in FL, AZ and CA. Are we at a true bottom or is this another "head fake" bear market rally bought on by low inventory like the tax credit frenzy of spring of 2010? I remember there were bidding wars during the tax credit. But this one feels a little different. Oh where oh where is that inventory gonna come from???
Good question.
I think a lot will depend on how well the economy holds up.
Many reliable recession indicators have been signalling "recession coming" for the past 12 months - including the usually highly reliable oil spike indicators.
Stock market should hold up for 2012 however.
I correctly read the 2009-10 counter-trend rally for what it was - namely temporary - but as of yet, I'm not sure what to make of this surge in buyer activity.
The Phoenix and Las Vegas housing markets over-corrected relative to household incomes - and that could explain the buying activity in those two cities. But highly favorable income/housing price ratios are not the case the three major cities in CA.
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corkhorner
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Posted 04/27/12
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#16
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I think value added [forced] appreciation always wins. AKA creative real estate. Ya don't have to make a million dollars a week. The Dahli Lama said something I had concluded on my own: " most people spend their health to attain wealth and too late spend their wealth for health" Sounds simple enough? Another clue, in the book The Millionaire Next Door describes most of them in every day mundane businesses.....when I had a repair and remod biz , one of my Old Del Mar clients owned a wholesale parts company for small auto repair operators. He lived next door to Tony Robbins. Another idea, from Trump and others, get into a good well managed network marketing biz, ride the wave and stay with it. One of mine is credit repair and restoration which NEVER goes out of style! So, different strokes for different folks. cork horner
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RobertB
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Posted 04/28/12
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#17
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Robert C-
I checked out the comps in one area in Murrieta that I know too well. I sold my home there last year after living there for 3 years. Inventory is up prices are down from 6 months ago. This is a virtually new home on a golf course. Lots and lots of short sales listed more that last year. Given my pessimistic view point it looks like the market is falling apart and people have given up sitting out the down turn and are resorting to mass short sales. The good side is lots of buyers have been willing to step in and purchase. It looks like prices in that neighborhood will be back to the low ( circa 2009) in about 1 year at this rate of decline.
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mlreits
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Posted 04/29/12
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#18
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Cork, that's a great line from Dahli Lama.
RobertB, I'm hoping for a second chance to buy too, but I wouldn't hold my breath for my neck of the woods. I track my area quite a bit, and it appears that most of the weak hands have been flushed out in the lower and mid tiers. Unless other opportunity presents itself, I think I'm done buying for this year although I might get lucky with some of my own listings. 
Not sure about your farm and how competitive it is. I recently went to a listing presentation for an NOD in Santa Clara County. The seller showed me a stack of mailers, organized in a vanilla folder, that she received from realtors. My guess is +/- 75 pieces of mailers. Seller claimed that the reason she picked us was that 1) we provided information in our letter, not sales pitch, and 2) we were able to provide a missing piece of the puzzle in her equation. To me, it was more of luck rather than my mailer, but point #2 was what sold her. None of the agent she interviewed offered her that. Problem solving at its best.
Now it comes down to getting the deal closed. It's a $700k listing in a desirable part of San Jose. 2nd lender is a pain in the rear to deal with. Fingers crossed.
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RobertCampbell
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Posted 04/29/12
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#19
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Quote: Originally Posted by corkhorner The Dahli Lama said something I had concluded on my own: " most people spend their health to attain wealth and too late spend their wealth for health"
"To what do you attribute the biggest reason for your success?" an interviewer recently asked billionaire investor Richard Branson.
"Good health," said Branson.
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RobertB
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Posted 04/29/12
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#20
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Quote: Originally Posted by mlreitsCork, that's a great line from Dahli Lama. RobertB, I'm hoping for a second chance to buy too, but I wouldn't hold my breath for my neck of the woods. I track my area quite a bit, and it appears that most of the weak hands have been flushed out in the lower and mid tiers. Unless other opportunity presents itself, I think I'm done buying for this year although I might get lucky with some of my own listings. Not sure about your farm and how competitive it is. I recently went to a listing presentation for an NOD in Santa Clara County. The seller showed me a stack of mailers, organized in a vanilla folder, that she received from realtors. My guess is +/- 75 pieces of mailers. Seller claimed that the reason she picked us was that 1) we provided information in our letter, not sales pitch, and 2) we were able to provide a missing piece of the puzzle in her equation. To me, it was more of luck rather than my mailer, but point #2 was what sold her. None of the agent she interviewed offered her that. Problem solving at its best.
What was point #2?Now it comes down to getting the deal closed. It's a $700k listing in a desirable part of San Jose. 2nd lender is a pain in the rear to deal with. Fingers crossed. |
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CGabhart
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Posted 04/29/12
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#21
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Robert b you really don't understand the point?
He hopes he can get the second to agree to the deal so he can sell it.
Am I bei g to simplistic in my imerpretation Minh?
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corkhorner
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Posted 04/29/12
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#22
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yes RC.....Branson is the person to watch. Living his life on the edge----HEALTHY. At 75, I easily see it. c h
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CGabhart
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mlreits
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Posted 04/30/12
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#24
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RobertB & Curtis,
With respect to point #2, I can't disclose it in public yet until the property is sold. I don't know who is reading on this forum so I don't want to jinx the deal. However, anyone that's creative as you two would probably have come up with the same idea or even a better one, but a typical RE agent can't. It was an aha moment for the seller, but nothing new to creative investors. Seller's response was "none of the agents offered me this."
Curtis, if it only were that easy.
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RobertB
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Posted 04/30/12
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#25
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Shucks, can you Private Message me. I can share an idea that I have in exchange.
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mlreits
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Posted 04/30/12
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#26
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Quote: Originally Posted by RobertBShucks, can you Private Message me. I can share an idea that I have in exchange.
Robert. Thanks in advance for sharing. Let me know if you didn't get the PM.
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mlreits
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Posted 05/01/12
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#27
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It's time to toot my own horn.
To paraphrase some of the comments RobertB said.
"I like it. It is a beautiful plan. It's good for the seller, but very good for you in fees. You're earning your money."
Can I say oh yeah..... oh yeah........ oh yeah, oh yeah, oh yeah.............(dancing & smiling at the same time).
Thx for the compliments Mr. B.
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