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dsmith04

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Reply with quote  #1 
Curious to know if anyone is buying in Idaho.  I've seen some threads on pre-con flip and land spec, but I was wondering what people's thoughts were on the SFH & 4 plex market.
USAInvestor

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I bought a brand new SFH in Meridian seven months ago. I still cannot sell it at this moment of time.  I am not sure I have answered your question...

 

 


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jaypnc

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I am building 2 that are almost complete in S. Nampa, they have appreciated nicely, trying to flip the contracts or just close and re-list ...  these houses will sell for about 280K


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JayB
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Reply with quote  #4 

jaypc,

 

when did you buy?

 

 

bbn

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I live in the Boise valley and have been trying for the last 9 months to get a fix on this construction boom.   My present stance is getting prepared to buy some properties with cherry picking in mind...foreclosures etc.   I have some buddies that agree with me and then  others who say it isn't going to slow down in this valley for many years so forget the possibility of bargains. I have lived and invested in this valley for 30 yrs. and would like to think I have a feel for it..However,  what this valley has gone through in the last 3 yrs. is a new experience for most Idahoans.  What I know for certain is the fact there are a lot of empty new homes in Boise, Star,Caldwell,Nampa, Meridian, Kuna.  Also,  the arm's are going to create more homes in the market.  Right now with so many vacancies rent is low for new homes.   I suggest caution is the right approach.  In this valley everywhere you go there is MASSIVE amounts of construction residential and commercial....WILL IT CONTINUE???????best to all of you

 

do less and accomplish more

 

kevink

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Reply with quote  #6 
I have one in Eagle and one in Nampa listed.
I just got back from there this week.

Most of the realtors I talked to say it's coming back to a "normal market."
Some of the data is showing inventory going down in June and early July, so this is a positive. It has not been a good year for RE in Boise so far but things in July really have picked up.

It also seems to depend on what subdivision your home is in. You'll have one sub selling like crazy while an equal one right down the street has for sale signs everywhere and it is tough to move anything.

Also undercutting is already happening: I listed my Nampa house $2k below what the other one of the same model was listed at, and right afterward another guy listed the same house $9k below mine!

I'm nervous but I don't see the Boise market going down the tubes. I think lots of inventory will get absorbed this month and next. However, I would definitely use lots of caution, and preconstruction seems to be done in this market. If you're looking to invest up there I would take a good hard look at Mountain Home, about 30 miles east of Boise- Kraft factory opening soon, big Air Force base there, rents more in line with home prices than Boise/Eagle/Meridian/Nampa. Good luck!

rowdywa

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Ok,  here are the facts about this market in Boise area. Inventory is up but pendings are keeping up with the increase in inventory. We have seen around 2 to 3k increase per month in certain area's of Meridian, Boise. The rental market is tighting and rents are increasing. Unemployment is a constant at around 4.5%. There is definitely alot of profit taken going on right know and that created a glut for a couple of months. Average Days on market here is around 60 so be prepared.

 

That being said you have to be careful not to work with agents or people that don't understand what is happening in the market, they will sell you anything you want without keeping the big picture in mind, that when you make money we all make money.

 

New const. in Boise is long term only, Nampa Caldwell still room to grow, there is a new mall going in, as well as target Walmart Sams Club, Old Navy the list goes on.  Mtn. Home is a great area to invest in as well. Just be careful of the agents you work with and you will make money!!


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Rowdy Adams
The Wealth Street Group, LLC
Boise, Idaho
208-371-5108
208-495-2134
rowdywa@rowdyrealestate.com
http://rowdyrealestate.com
dsmith04

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Reply with quote  #8 
I'm living in Eagle, ID right now and trying to get a handle on what is coming.  There were a lot of new investors here last year and I think there are a number of them that might get into a pinch.  I agree that I don't think the market is going to collapse, but its only appreciated about the US average.  It just all happened in 2004-05 vs 2001->2005.  The HELOC toy factor does seem huge, which gives me pause about the mortgages, especially in the higher priced homes.

There are the people that get lucky and get someone from CA that moves up, especially here in Eagle -- but the number of homes that are on the market right now seems high.  Stuff in Eagle is really taking a long time to sell unless its primo location/lot.  I've been looking for a house and have decided to take a wait and see approach until the fall.  I think there will be some deals to pick from as people need to move their Inventory.

I've heard that we are around 6 months of inventory and "normal" for Eagle is 3-4 months.  But in "normal" there was minimal appreciation from 97-03, I'd actually say it was negative when taking inflation into account.

Does anyone know where you can cash flow out here?  I was thinking canyon county multi-family units.  Although it kind of makes me feel like a slum lord.

I would agree with the other poster about pre-con - there are a TON of pre-con flippers trying to get out.  Especially in meridian.  There are tons of empty houses for sale and the builders are still slapping them up like gangbusters. 

dsmith04

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rowdywa

Ok, here are the facts about this market in Boise area. Inventory is up but pendings are keeping up with the increase in inventory. We have seen around 2 to 3k increase per month in certain area's of Meridian, Boise. The rental market is tighting and rents are increasing. Unemployment is a constant at around 4.5%. There is definitely alot of profit taken going on right know and that created a glut for a couple of months. Average Days on market here is around 60 so be prepared.

That being said you have to be careful not to work with agents or people that don't understand what is happening in the market, they will sell you anything you want without keeping the big picture in mind, that when you make money we all make money.

New const. in Boise is long term only, Nampa Caldwell still room to grow, there is a new mall going in, as well as target Walmart Sams Club, Old Navy the list goes on. Mtn. Home is a great area to invest in as well. Just be careful of the agents you work with and you will make money!!



Re: Unemployment do you know what % of that is decent paying jobs and what % of that is construction?   It seems like most of the job growth is hourly or construction. 
dsmith04

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Inventory update:  I spoke with a Realtor this weekend and he said that last year Ada county was running about 1400-1500 SFH listings and now it was 3400-3500.  I checked MLS this morning and there were just shy of 3750.  That number should drop back some one pendings and contracts update from the weekend.
rowdywa

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Reply with quote  #11 

Here are the stats for the Treasure Valley on Employment. Let just say that the economy is hot. The growth isn't just construction here. It only makes up 8% of the total job market. With a (I was alittle high on the unemployment rate before) 3% Unemployment rate as of June of this year, it will put pressure on the wages to increase.

 

The RE market will continue to grow with the influcts of new worker to fill the gaps. I see inventory rising but pendings are still keeping up I hate the doom and gloom realtors (realtors that have been here forever and never ventured out) of the valley and their are plenty of them.

 

Here are some links to the Jobs Market in Boise Metro area.

 

Good luck

http://lmi.idaho.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/3965_Boise_MSA.pdf

 

http://cl.idaho.gov/lmi/pubs/idempnews/ietvcur.pdf


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Rowdy Adams
The Wealth Street Group, LLC
Boise, Idaho
208-371-5108
208-495-2134
rowdywa@rowdyrealestate.com
http://rowdyrealestate.com
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