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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #91 
2017 for Crypto Funds - There's an old saying on Wall Street:  "When the ducks are quacking, feed 'em"

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #92 
Time to buy the dip?

Probably not.  Too early.

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #93 
U.S. credit card debt has risen 20-25% since 2012 - which is about 8 times faster than population growth.

One of reasons for this is that 25-50% of Americans are now unable to live on what they make, and make up the difference by taking on debt. 

credit card debt.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #94 
A $2.3M starter home in Palo Alto ...


palo_alto.png 




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #95 
Compared to Q1 2017, Manhattan home sales are down 25% in Q1 2018 - lowering prices by 5.2%.

Median priced Manhattan home is $1.7M.

manhattan_condos.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #96 
Bullish price pattern for gold ...

The trend is already up, so a price breakout above the $1,370 level (as shown by the "1" blue circle) could result in a run to at least $1,796, as shown by the "2" blue circle ... according to the Kimble charting service.

gold4.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #97 
Everything is going to be fine ...

Median sales price for a Seattle home was $820,000 in March 2018

seattle.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #98 
Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum on March 1st. 

Since then, here's how different asset classes have performed.

performance.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #99 
WSJ report:  Income needed to buy an average home in each state.

Hawaii is the least affordable.  West Virginia is the most affordable.

U.s. affordability.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #100 

Does human nature doom most people (including investors) to make the same mistakes over and over again?

Evidence strongly supports this view.

why we don't learn from history.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #101 
"Where you want to be is always in control" - Paul Tudor Jones

Wise words.

You can't control what the markets will do, but you can control when you buy and sell.

paul tudor jones.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #102 
A brilliant "principle" from Joseph Tussman (1914-2005), who was a Professor of Philosophy at Cal Berkeley.

Want to be a better investor?

Align yourself with the world around you.  Stop fighting it because you want it to be another way.

Or as I like to say, "want what the market wants, not what you want."

Tussman.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #103 
Super sweet foods are making a come back because this is what American consumers want.

With all the educational materials out there that explain the evils of excessive carb and sugar consumption,
I guess nobody cares.

This is very sad because being significantly overweight is an extremely unhealthy condition for your body to be in, and this in indisputable fact that can be backed up with tons of data and research studies.

super_sweet_foods.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #104 
Courtesy of Morgan Housel, this is a useful chart for becoming a better investor.

I especially like "reasonable analysis you disagree with."   This helps you to constantly re-evaluate (and hone) your investment strategies - along with reconsidering how you should be positioned in the markets. 

Even after decades of experience and research, I will always seek out superior strategies for investing money.

morgan.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #105 
Rickards is an excellent communicator - and has the ability to explain complicated economic matters in terms that even laymen can understand.

Something to aspire to.

richards.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #106 
Think about the consequences of this ...

‘Over the next decade, the U.S. government will spend almost $7 trillion -- or almost $60,000 per household -- servicing the nation’s massive debt burden.’

Be aware the government will rarely (or never) do anything to avoid a financial crisis.  They will only act after a crisis has occurred.  It's therefore up to you to protect yourself.

us debt.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #107 
Meet the F-15E Strike Eagle - the best fighter plane ever built

What a beast.  It has a top speed of 1,890 MPH (Mach 2.5) - and an air-to-air kill ratio of 98 to 1

In other words, don't f**k with a F-15 if you want to come home alive.

The pilot made this pass at a 90 degree bank with full after-burners on.   Incredible. 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #108 
Fed rate hikes have preceded recessions in the last 20 years

rate hikes.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #109 
Why I'm Not A Buy-And-Hold Investor

To get back to breakeven, buy-and-hold investors in the Vietnam stock market spent the last 11 years recovering from previous losses.

After the 2006 peak, the same was true for quite a few U.S. housing markets  - including Los Angeles and San Diego.

viet nam.png 

abc

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Reply with quote  #110 
These debt levels make you think Gold should be a good investment going forward.  Because the Gov't needs inflation to makes its debt smaller.  But then in late 1929, 2000, 2008....cash and US treasury bonds were the best investment right before the crashes due the the huge initial asset deflation hit, right?


Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
Think about the consequences of this ...

‘Over the next decade, the U.S. government will spend almost $7 trillion -- or almost $60,000 per household -- servicing the nation’s massive debt burden.’

Be aware the government will rarely (or never) do anything to avoid a financial crisis.  They will only act after a crisis has occurred.  It's therefore up to you to protect yourself.

us debt.png
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #111 
ABC,

First off, stocks have proven themselves to be a better long-term inflation hedge than gold.

Gold is a complicated asset class - and I am reminded of something I read many decades ago that I never forgot: 

"There are only two people in the world who truly understand gold - and they disagree."  

Cash will be a good investment during the next financial crisis - however I believe gold will do even better.   

One reason is because gold is undervalued relative to other major asset classes - stocks, bonds, real estate, art, etc, etc, - and that's where a lot of sophisticated money will probably flow.

That trend seems to have already begun, as I believe I may have mentioned previously. 

abc

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Reply with quote  #112 
Thanks Robert, really value your insight and experience.

When I try to think about the big picture and what might happen in the economy in the near future, and if a big crash or some type or big reset is avoidable, the thing that its just difficult to see an easy resolution to is the debt to GDP ratios in the developed world.  As you know well Robert and have talked about a lot.  And as has repeated ad nauseam over and over, and as we all know.....world history just doesn't have a precedent for the level of money printing & zero rates we saw from the Fed, ECB, BofJ, etc... (and are still seeing from ECB and BofJ).  As far as I know there just isn't a former historic operating manual for how this money creation works out?  The guess of course is that assets were inflated by all the historic record money creation comes down a lot.

Although asset prices are high now in stocks and real estate, I don't sense quite as much nutty euphoria now with retail investors that I did in 1999 and 2006.  1999 with tech stocks was a TRUE Tuplimania and "loss of any type of rational sanity" level of a bubble.  So was 2005 with residential real estate.  Doesn't seem like the Uber driver or hairdresser are trading stocks or buying 10 rentals in Vegas right now.  But it seems what IS un-tethered from reality is the debt levels in the developed world (and obligations owed).
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #113 
ABC,

The markets (and the world) are a lot riskier than most people believe - and sooner or later, every investor comes to this realization.   

You mentioned an "operating manual" for navigating changing markets.

Knowing that everything in the universe is cyclical, the operating manual that I suggest you consider is "to get into markets that are rising and out of that are falling."

I say this because market downturns may be mild - or they may be real butt-kickers (or even fatal).   

So my attitude is why take the risk?  Protecting capital is just as important as making it grow, and even more so the older you get and the closer you get to retirement. 

Regarding the lack of apparent "euphoria" in the real estate market, I think its there if consider the "bidding wars" that are now going on -- and also if you look at Gallop polls. 

Even though housing prices are expensive, the sentiment today regarding what real estate prices will do in the future is highly optimistic - and the sentiment readings are close to the same optimistic levels that existed during the 2005-2006 period. 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #114 
Before and after the 2008 financial crisis.

If you are in the top 10%, you're either doing well or holding your own.

However most people (90%) have lost ground. 

before and after.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #115 
Over the next five years, the IMF is forecasting that Public Debt to GDP ratios are are going to come down in all advanced economies, except for one.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/986634242074533893

And the Fed says it will keep raising rates - which may help to explain this.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #116 
This is but one of many reasons why Gov Brown's proposal to increase CA gas taxes by 42% is/was a bad idea ...

gas_taxes.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #117 
Buy and hold real estate investments for the long-run?

Since 2015, the Lending Club (LC) has fallen from $26 to $3.38.

lending club.gif 

Jeff

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Reply with quote  #118 

Quote:
Originally Posted by abc
Thanks Robert, really value your insight and experience.

...Doesn't seem like the Uber driver or hairdresser are trading stocks or buying 10 rentals in Vegas right now. 

 

Ah...the good old days.  I miss them.  

Of course, they didn't have Uber drivers back then (2005?)...and that hairdresser might be a millionaire by now.


__________________
Please God, make the second million easier...
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #119 

The median priced home in San Francisco was $1,680,000 in March 2018 (source: C.A.R.).

Price appreciation averaged $34,160 per month during the last 12 months. 

Sure beats working for a living. 

san francisco.jpg 




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #120 
The price of a Bitcoin is currently up 20% off it's March 26 lows.

With the hope of investing for a short or longer-term price gain, would this be a good time to buy?  

 Zoltar says "odds are against you." 

bitcoins7.png 


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