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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #121 
With oil prices climbing to a four year high, inflation scares are a current worry on Wall Street.

Appropriately, the expectation of 4 or more Fed rate hikes in 2018 rose from 27% a month ago to 45.7% today.

fed rate hikes.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #122 
As an investor, it took me 20 years for this Taoist concept to really sink in.

To succeed in the markets, don't act emotionally, hope, or over-think - set-up systems

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abc

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Reply with quote  #123 
Robert, what markets are you in right now that you are using "systems"?


Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
As an investor, it took me 20 years for this Taoist concept to really sink in.

To succeed in the markets, don't act emotionally, hope, or over-think - set-up systems

saying.png
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #124 
ABC,

I use systems for all the markets I invest in.

 I also use a systems approach for staying fit because it is the only thing that works on a long-term basis,

I'll be 71 next month, and people often say to me "I bet you don't have to do much at all to stay fit.  You just have good genes."

I just look at them and smile.  "I have to work on staying fit every hour of every day," I always respond.

Without a system, I would be lost.

Today, for example, I did dead-lifts, crunches, and ran up this hill eight times. 

When you get to be my age, this is what you have to do just to stay strong and hold your own.
 
gravel_hill2.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #125 
With the Fed's proposed 2018 rate hikes, it sure looks like the yield curve is going to invert - and probably this year. 

yield curve.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #126 
"When 10Y touches the trendline, it has marked past tops in the S&P 500."


equity tops.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #127 
Smart dog.

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #128 

Pension protests in Nicaragua

At least 10 people have died in Nicaragua during April 2018 violent protests over the government’s planned changes to the social security system.

These changes would increase worker contributions and lower pensions.

Is this a sign of things to come for California and other cities and states in the U.S.?

The economics of Socialism is failing all over the world, and the fall in the birthrates is dooming most pension models.

nicaragua.png

taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #129 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff

 

 

...and that hairdresser might be a millionaire by now.

 



But they may also have gone bankrupt.  It would be interesting to see the stats on this.


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #130 
Quote:
Originally Posted by taddyangle


But they may also have gone bankrupt. 



Excellent comment and you are exactly right.

Over any 20 year period, studies have repeatedly shown that the average investor under-performs the market averages by a huge margin - and that includes real estate investing.

The Pareto Principle is probably at work here - where 20% of all investors make 80% of the profits, and the other 80% divide up the remaining 20%.
 



taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #131 
Robert,

Thanks for sharing, I had not known it was called the Pareto Principle.  

I often see this 80-20 rule in other areas. 

We all saw it in RE back in the day.  

More recent, I observe this in all the get rich quick seminars by selling on Amazon.  Follows exactly what I observed in real estate.   I suspect there are many more examples.



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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #132 

The earnings for Lending Club were just released.

  The stock price just fell to $2.87 after trading at $3.38 last week.

lendingclub2.gif

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #133 
Quote:
Originally Posted by taddyangle
Robert,

Thanks for sharing, I had not known it was called the Pareto Principle.  

I often see this 80-20 rule in other areas. 

We all saw it in RE back in the day.  

More recent, I observe this in all the get rich quick seminars by selling on Amazon.  Follows exactly what I observed in real estate.   I suspect there are many more examples.




Good to catch up with you again Bernard.  It's been awhile - at least 10 years.  I remember well how a small group of us got together a few times at a book store in Solana Beach "back in the day."

Based on my experience, there are as just as many "get rich quick" hustlers in the real estate industry as there are how to stay "young and slim forever" hustlers in the health care business.


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #134 
The current "scare" on Wall Street is rising interest rates.

Ditto for the housing market - but they call it "declining affordability"

credit crunch.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #135 
Will inflation start rising along with wages? 

wage inflation.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #136 

The Top Four Reasons California Is Unsustainable

If government policies have made the economic well-being of California unsustainable, I wonder how CA housing prices would be impacted? 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasdelbeccaro/2018/04/19/the-top-four-reasons-california-is-unsustainable/#137dc6923a23
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #137 
If you are a gold investor - or are thinking of becoming one - one of the things you want to see is rising federal deficits.

While I do not advise making investment decisions on correlations that have been "curve fitted,"  I do believe gold is currently a good investment.

gold5.gif

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #138 
Timing indicator?

timing indicator.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #139 
U.S. Pension gap was $38 T in 2015 - and is expected to rise to $137 T in 2050.

But tell your kids not to worry.  We won't get that far.

pension gap.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #140 
Along with rising federal deficits, here's another reason I believe gold is a good investment.

gold6.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #141 
Money will buy you a lot of things but a strong, lean and healthy body isn't one of them.

While I'm sure the physical fitness "system" laid out in this book would be classified as "extreme" by 99% of all American men, I guarantee it will change how you look and feel.

If you want it, you can have it - and if you are a man over 60 years old, this is what it takes. 
 
burn fat.jpg 

Paul

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Reply with quote  #142 
I may have to buy that book. I have never had to diet in my life, but since moving to North Carolina and enjoying better beer, barbecue and less outdoor activity and work, I now have a mini gut. Odd thing is that I go to the gym more in NC than ever in CA, but my workouts are just full-body, strength routines like squats, deadlifts, bench presses, military presses, etc.

I need to make some gainzz. Bob, I'm tempted to buy that book. It's not bro science, right?

When people ask what is your main source of exercise and you have to respond "golf," it's probably time to make some changes. 

I love North Carolina, but miss my California, active, working lifestyle.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #143 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
I may have to buy that book. I have never had to diet in my life, but since moving to North Carolina and enjoying better beer, barbecue and less outdoor activity and work, I now have a mini gut. Odd thing is that I go to the gym more in NC than ever in CA, but my workouts are just full-body, strength routines like squats, deadlifts, bench presses, military presses, etc.

I need to make some gainzz. Bob, I'm tempted to buy that book. It's not bro science, right?

When people ask what is your main source of exercise and you have to respond "golf," it's probably time to make some changes. 

I love North Carolina, but miss my California, active, working lifestyle.


This is definitely an extreme training program - but that's what it takes to stay in excellent shape when you get to be our age.  That's because men lose 1% of our muscle mass every year.

Interestingly, even though both are considered "strength training," I find that the anaerobic training I do (running up hills) is more tiring than than weight lifting.  

Paul, you and I will never get younger, but we can stay young.

PS:  Unfortunately, playing golf is not part of the work-out regime.  haha

PSS:  After you read this book, I wouldn't be surprised if you email me and say "Are you out of your f**king mind Campbell?"   




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #144 
Paul, "The Metabolic Blowtorch Diet" is not "bro science." 

It's evidence based as much as possible.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #145 
Getting ready for the Golden Years - this is not good news for retirees.

The median (50th percentile) U.S. household held only $1,100 in its retirement account. Even the 70th percentile of households had only about $40,000.

retirement accounts.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #146 

“Generally a rising trend in rates is bearish for stocks; a falling trend is bullish"
-- Marty Zweig, Winning on Wall Street (a great book) 

Sell in May and go away?

With the Fed raising rates at this time, "not fighting the Fed" is generally good advice for stock market investors.

sell in may.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #147 
The wrong way to make investment decisions is via random chats with strangers.

No wonder the Cleveland Browns went 0-16 last year.

josh_rosen.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #148 
Since 1965, the price of Berkshire Hathaway stock has experienced a compounded annual rate of growth (CAGR) of 20.9%.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has experienced a 9.9% CAGR since 1965. 

Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has climbed from $25 trillion in 2009 to $118 trillion in 2018, more than almost any other company in the world.

The message? 


warren_buffett_cash_position.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #149 
Clean and press day.

This may be the best total-body strength training exercise of all - and its how a lot of pro athletes train.

I've done it for years and if you want to stay young and strong, I recommend it highly.

clean and press.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #150 
As an investor, the greatest superpower you can ever possess in the ability to adjust to change.

darwin22.jpg 

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