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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #31 
Warren Buffett is currently holding a mountain of cash, and didn't do a deal in 2017 because he said everything was too expensive.

Jan 2018:  Current value of shares in portfolio = $173 billion

Jan 2018:  Current cash position = $113 billion  (It was $30 billion in 2009 at the start of the bull market)

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett

berkshire hathaway cash.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #32 
After Fed Chairman Jay Powell spoke on the Hill, the probability of 4 rate hikes in 2018 climbed past 35%

After falling to 2.84% last week, the 10-year has risen back to 2.92% - and two hours before the close, the Dow is lower by 150 points.

rate hike.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #33 
 
"I've been rich and I've been poor, and rich is better." -- Mae West

Since 2007, the median household net worth has declined by 19% while the mean (aka the "average") has
increased by 24%.

I've heard that 10% of the people own 84% of the stock market. 

net worth2.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #34 
Fed Chairman Jay Powell also made this remark today ...

When asked about the $1.4 trillion of student loan debt that exists today, Powell defended it by saying education is the best investment you can make for your future.

I have a different view.   

Education "can" be a good investment, but it's not the "best" by a long shot. 

Your best investment is your health.

And to prove it to yourself, find a 65 year rich guy that's in poor health and ask him this:  "Would you trade all your money for good health?"

And your second best investment?

It's not education either.  For people that want to create wealth for themselves, it's owning and growing a profitable business.


powell.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #35 
After the stock market lost another 420 points today - which brings the three day loss to around 1,200 points -
we we need something to make us laugh.

From Conan O'Brian a few weeks ago, this two minute video explains at how rich you could have been with 20/20 hindsight ...



RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #36 
Another volatile day for the Dow.  It was down 70 at the close. 

Today's market hysterics were focused primarily on looming "trade wars" - and not on "rising interest rates" as was the case a few days ago. 

trade_wars.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #37 
A ticking time-bomb ....

The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) is the largest public pension fund for civil servents in the United States.

The chart below only runs through 2015, however the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research recently reported that over $100,000 is now needed from every household in California to to fund the CalPERS shortfall.

In 2015, each household in California owed $93,000 to cover the pension shortfall, up from $36,000 owed in 2008. 

To help bailout out CalPERS, this why Governor Brown wanted to raise gas taxes by 42% in January 2017. 

It's going to be fascinating to see how this works out.

calpers2.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #38 
Fascinating chart

Explains why most American's have used debt to maintain their standard of living (and keep up with the Jones's)

worker compensation.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #39 

This is soooo wrong ...

obesity rate.jpg 

MJohnson

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Reply with quote  #40 
Hi Robert,

Curious to know your opinion on the "trade war" Trump wants to start.  I'm admittedly biased (from Detroit, where "Buy American" is expected), but it seems to me that "giant sucking sound of jobs" Ross Perot predicted pre-NAFTA has come true.  Most politicians from either party hate the idea, which also makes me think it's a good one, LOL.  [biggrin] 

I remember reading a pre-NAFTA article where the author predicted 10 years or so of a booming economy, followed by massive job losses.  Their rationale was that companies had huge capital investments in existing factories, so they wouldn't move them on a whim, but when it was time for an upgrade or a new factory, that's when the jobs would exit.  Seems like things followed that basic pattern; is there a smart way to reverse that trend without sending inflation through the roof?

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #41 
Trump said ‘if you don’t have steel, you don’t have a country’.

Is he all that wrong?

But also check out this blog post by econ prof Robert Perry (Univ. of Michigan), who is a free-market economist that I tend to side with.   

Professor Perry no likely Trumps proposed tariff plan on aluminum and steel imports.

http://www.aei.org/publication/you-might-be-a-protectionist-3/

wilbur.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #42 
With the sharp sell-off in the U.S. stocks in January, short-term trend followers did better at protecting capital than long-term trend followers.

However over the past few years, slower strategies have performed better than faster strategies.

trend followers.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #43 
How to spot an intellectual idiot .... by Nassim Taleb (who I am a big fan of)

Among other things, "he doesn't do dead lifts." 

Classic Taleb!

[Paul, I'm confident you will find this amusing]

deadlifts.jpg 



RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #44 
The Fed has hiked rates four times in the last two years.

This has resulted in 90-day T-Bills rising from a yield of 0.25% in 2017 to a yield of 1.68% today - which is a 10-year high.

The best yields on one-year CD's are now over 2.0%. 

For savers (and investors), the desperate "reach for yield" that has prevailed since 2008 may slowly be coming to an end.

CD_rates.png 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #45 
Checking in on bitcoins again ...

Will the $7,380 low from Feb 5, 2018 be taken out?

Magic 8-Ball says "yes"

bitcoin_chart.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #46 
Older Americans either can't afford to retire or they love working ...


job picture.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #47 
More news from La La Land ...

The movement within California to split the state between Republican v Democrat has passed the first hurdle in becoming the 51st State.

The movement is called the New California.



new california.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #48 
Yup.  Simon M. is a smart man.

To protect your capital, control what you can control. 

You can choose when to buy and sell - but you can't choose what the economy and markets are going to do in the future.


simon_M.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #49 

Pretty amazing, however it explains this

SF.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #50 


Do you want to make better decisions? 

Among other things, have an open mind ... from Morgan Hansel

morgan_hansel.png 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #51 
Precisely.  The only way to see if something works is to test it.

theory.png 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #52 
Dead-cat bounce? 


TLT.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #53 

40 top economists unanimously agree: Steel and aluminum tariffs will not make America great

I don't normally pay much attention to "consensus" economic opinions - but I tend to agree
with these 40 guys

Tariffs do not increase economic growth


tarriffs.png 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #54 
Fascinating chart from MarketWatch ...

It shows the highly cyclical nature of junk bond default rates from 1986 to 2009. 

Will it be different this time?

Magic Eight-Ball says "probably not."

junk bonds.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #55 
The size of the national debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves.


debt.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #56 
Pit Bull is one of the headliners at the Real Estate Wealth Expo in Toronto on April 7th.

Ding, ding, ding?


pit bull.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #57 
This book is required reading for those of you who want to lose weight and keep it off ...

It's evidence-based of course.

Along with running up hills, it even keeps dogs lean, which includes my beagle - who thinks about food all day long.

Why-We-Get-Fat.png 




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #58 
Rates continue to move higher ...


libor2.png 

abc

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Reply with quote  #59 
Pit Bull himself might not get me out to an expo....but his dancers sure might😉

Thanks for the economic analysis in this thread Robert, I'm enjoying reading it, hope you keep it up.  As always, fascinating what the future might bring.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #60 
It good to hear from you again young man - and I'm glad you're enjoying this thread.

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