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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #61 
Facebook's worst nightmare ...

Guess what the future would look like for the Santa Clara/Bay Area economy (and housing prices) if this happened
in mass?

Or if they broke Google up?

Very few things in life are guaranteed - and permanently elevated housing prices are not one of them.


facebook22.jpg 

abc

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Reply with quote  #62 
All these social media companies and Google are basically advertising companies (like TV and radio used to dominate).  All their revenue comes from using our personal data for Ad's.  It's interesting if there could be some Gov't "trust busting" coming down the road like the turn of the century monopolies, and/or a big public backlash.  Also if some type of other technology were to creep in and steal some of their ad revenue that would be interesting.  More people should secure their browsers so these companies can't track everything you do, everywhere you go, and send you ads.



rickencin

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Reply with quote  #63 
I'm tired of being monetized. 
I'm sure senior corporate officials would be offended if their private information was sold for pennies.  Politicians would have steam blowing out of their ears.
Perhaps we need laws requiring private information to be put into a block chain that can be traced back to the original collector.  50& of all revenue would be paid to the person whose information was used.  
Companies would be just a bit more careful about selling peoples information if their customers knew and could take their business elsewhere.
Everything starts out as the wild west, but eventually the wives and schoolmarms move in and bring rules with them.

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Rick
abc

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Reply with quote  #64 
Google for example now spends tens of millions on lobbying in DC and has permanent people in DC lobbying the Gov't.  So changes may be tempered.  Just like health insurance and big pharma spend tens of millions lobbying to keep the status quo from changing, and to keep health care costs from coming down.  Lot's of people get filthy stinking rich off maintaining the status quo.

There should be really large print disclosures where you have to OPT IN to any of these social media companies selling your personal data.  There also should be ONE easy button in your browser, facebook, etc... that OPTS YOU OUT of them tracking everything you do.  Of course Facebook and Google want to make privacy as difficult as possible so they can keep making billions in AD revenue.  And if they break these rules, there should be massive penalties.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #65 
Quantitative Tightening by the Fed ...

A measly $50B was unwound in 4 months - but the trend is what matters.


fed balance sheet.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #66 

This "fear index" is amazingly high - and especially so if you compare it against the year 2009, where the S&P 500 lost approximately 45% of its value.

vix.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #67 
I will definitely order (and read) this book because we humans learn more from our investment mistakes than we do from our successes.

It's out in June. 

big mistakes.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #68 
The U.S. education system needs to be revamped start to finish.  Its one of the worst in the world. 

And in case you wonder why Americans are so overweight ...

abc

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Reply with quote  #69 
I agree our education system needs a Manhattan Project like overhaul where we focus more on STEM starting in pre-school.  China graduates many, many times more engineers then the USA.  Much greater focus on math and science there.  Eventually this will catch up to us, if it already hasn't.  Too many young people spending a lot of money, going into debt, and getting degrees that don't get them good jobs.  While high paying jobs in STEM go unfulfilled or have to be filled by H1-B's imports.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #70 
30-year fixed rate mortgages hit a 4-year high in mid-March. 

Will this rising trend continue?

Me thinks "that's the way to bet."

rates.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #71 
The Fed may be slowly unwinding it's balance sheet, but the ECB and BOJ are still buying assets to keep interest rates low, asset prices high, and to stimulate their economies ...

Apparently the punch bowl is still in need of additional spiking.    

deleveraging.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #72 
Are we getting close to a recession?

This chart is from  Mish

mish.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #73 
Want to scare yourself?

As an investor, the biggest enemy you’ll ever face or have to deal with is yourself ...


scare2.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #74 
A 1BR 1BA condo (743 sq ft) just sold for $828K in Cupertino, CA - which is where Apple is headquartered

Refin details are shown here

BTW, the median priced home in Cupertino is currently $2.3M.

cupertino condo.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #75 
CoreLogic reported that San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle have had high rent growth and a low vacancy rate during the last 12 months.

The best of both worlds.

Compare that with Oklahoma City - which has had no rent growth and a 10% vacancy rate since Q4 2016.

rents3.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #76 
Want to be happier?

Don't lose money in the markets. 

What else?

Stop worrying about what other people think of you.

"Some women are going to love you and some of 'em won't," my Dad would always tell me. "Pay attention to the ones that do."

Dad was a smart man.


not caring.png 

abc

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Reply with quote  #77 
My thought of the day is, how would the world be different IF:

1. No one in congress got a defined benefit pension - they all just got paid salaries and were responsible for their own retirements via 401k, IRA's, investing their savings?
2. No one in congress got special free zero deductible tax payer funded Gov't health care for life?   They all had to pay for ObamaCare premiums, deductibles, etc... out of their own pockets?
3. No Fed governors got defined benefit pensions - they all just got paid salaries and were responsible for their own retirements via 401k, IRA's saving?

My thinking is these would be very positive changes for everyone except congress and the Fed.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #78 
Quote:
Originally Posted by abc
My thought of the day is, how would the world be different IF:

1. No one in congress got a defined benefit pension - they all just got paid salaries and were responsible for their own retirements via 401k, IRA's, investing their savings?
2. No one in congress got special free zero deductible tax payer funded Gov't health care for life?   They all had to pay for ObamaCare premiums, deductibles, etc... out of their own pockets?
3. No Fed governors got defined benefit pensions - they all just got paid salaries and were responsible for their own retirements via 401k, IRA's saving?

My thinking is these would be very positive changes for everyone except congress and the Fed.


You're right - absolutely!

In addition, do you know what one simple change would reduce government corruption by 90%?

Allow elected officials to stay in office for one term only.

Bang!  Problem solved.  But the foxes in the chicken house (i.e. the politicians) would have to vote for term limits - so that's a problem.

To help "drain the swamp," didn't Trump campaign on term limits?
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #79 
Today's best news:  Its Opening Day for Baseball!

What beautiful words ...


opening day.jpg

GeorgeB

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Reply with quote  #80 
Quote:
Originally Posted by abc
I agree our education system needs a Manhattan Project like overhaul where we focus more on STEM starting in pre-school.  China graduates many, many times more engineers then the USA.  Much greater focus on math and science there.  Eventually this will catch up to us, if it already hasn't.  Too many young people spending a lot of money, going into debt, and getting degrees that don't get them good jobs.  While high paying jobs in STEM go unfulfilled or have to be filled by H1-B's imports.


If Trump would implement his promise that every family would get a voucher and would be able to send their kids to the school of their choice whether public, private, charter, etc. That would introduce competition into our education system and solve the problem. Parents know whats best for their kids and will ensure they get the best education. It's that simple.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #81 
My kind of woman - one that does dead lifts

Upper body strength makes you look strong

Lower body strength is the fountain of youth

Try 'em.  You'll love the way it makes you stand taller and more erect.

dead lifts.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #82 
Magic 8-Ball was right

Current Bitcoin price is $6,665.01 - which took out the low of Feb 5th ($6,914)

Using a one-year look-back period, Bitcoin is up 512% in the last 12 months, but is down 65% in the last 3.5 months.

However if we look at sales volume, this investment story becomes even more fascinating. 

There were roughly 50 times more buyers who purchased Bitcoins for $19,000 at the peak of the market in Dec 2017 as compared to the number of buyers who paid $1,100 for Bitcoins in March 2017.

This obviously means a lot of people have taken big losses on their Bitcoin investments in 2018.

bitcoins5.png

SFL

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Reply with quote  #83 

What is 'Painting The Tape'

Painting the tape is a form of market manipulation whereby market players attempt to influence the price of a security by buying and selling it among themselves to create the appearance of substantial trading activity. Painting the tape is an illegal activity that is prohibited by the Securities and Exchange Commission because it creates an artificial price. The term originated in a bygone era when stock prices were largely transmitted on a "ticker tape."

(Courtesy of http://www.investopedia.com)

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #84 
Want to stay young?

Laugh more.

Monkey riding a dog at a Denver Bronco football game (18 second video)

abc

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Reply with quote  #85 
Robert, what are your latest thoughts on the macro picture for inflation vs. deflation debate going forward?  

It's interesting that here we are into the 2nd qtr of 2018 very late into a "recovery" cycle (approaching 9 yrs), and the 10 year treasury is still only 2.74%.  Yield curve is flattening.  Late into the last cycle June of 2007 the 10 year T was over 5%.  And late into the recovery cycle before that one in Feb 2000 the 10 yr T was 6.53%.  

It seems like 10 year really can't go up that much without the risk of crashing stocks, real estate, and of course bonds all at the same time.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #86 
ABC,

Great questions - and I wish God would whisper the answers in my ear.  haha

With a few exceptions, its almost pure speculation to look into the future a year or two out and know what's going to happen, however here's how I feel the macro picture could play out.

First off, there will no "deflation" as far as the CPI is concerned.  The Fed will simply not let deflation happen because we would then be in another 1930's situation, which nobody wants.

Asset prices, however, are another matter.  They will deflate from their lofty levels when their respective cycles turn, just like they have throughout history, and especially so since 2000. 

Interest rates are likely to keep rising - and I suspect in a big way.

One reason for rising rates is the Fed has no choice.  The U.S. pension system is in deep, deep trouble - and one of the big reasons why is because rates have been at record lows for almost nine straight years.   Higher rates won't fix the underfunded problems by any means - but its a start.

It's also important to observe how the cycles have become more extreme since 2000.  In my view, this is largely due to greater Fed intervention in the economy and the markets - and I expect these cycles will continue to make extreme moves going forward. 

A looming pension crisis (an $18T industry) is probably one of the biggest economic problems we face today - and I think the Fed is slowly starting to recognize that.

But please know this is all pure guesswork on my part because some other catalyst (such as a war, trade wars, recession, a big move in the USD, etc, etc) could suddenly reverse the cycles in a major as well.  However, whatever the cause, history shows that these highly elevated asset prices will not stay highly elevated forever.   

Even though stocks, bonds, and real estate have had an incredible run in the last nine years - and because Fed policy and its actions have take prices to visibly excessive levels in many cases - the unwinding of these excesses could (or will) lead to significant declines.  


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #87 

In 2016, the top 10% owned 77.2% of the wealth in the U.S. - up from 71.4% in 2007.

Nine more years of trickle-down economics.


wealth distribution.jpg

abc

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Reply with quote  #88 
Thanks Robert for your insights, makes a lot of sense.

Like you said the Fed has to fight deflation to be able to make the Gov't debts smaller.  So, it seems like if stocks crash or we get a recession, and they are forced to go back to another round of QE and cut rates that might be good for gold?  

It will be interesting where the 10 year T goes.  Still only at 2.74% despite the massive QE and zero rates for so many years that was supposed to get inflation into the system.  Mortgage rates follow the 10 year T so that one will be really interesting to watch.

This is also the stock market and economy's first real test with tightening by the Fed since pre-2008, and stocks have been much more volatile in 2018 as the Fed tightens.  
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #89 

ABC,

I do think gold is going to be a good investment from here on, regardless of what the Fed does - and especially so relative to the future price movements in stocks, bonds, and real estate.

Silver too.

More and more investment money is now starting to slowly flow into those two assets - and that should be the case for the next 1-3 years.  Most if not all other asset classes are currently overpriced.

While there are no guarantees, it seems like someone is doing what I consider to be thoughtful investment research.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #90 
From La La Land ...

Judge rules coffee needs cancer warning in California ...


coffee.jpg 

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