Shared Top Border
sdcia_head3.jpg (14795 bytes)
SDCIA Message Board
Register Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #1 
Can you believe that someone wrote a dissertation on the subject and no one has ever mentioned it?

The document is only 25 pages long, but the Table of Contents says that the actual dissertation is more than 355 pages long.

I found this on dissertation.com.



No, I haven't read it yet, but I have forwarded iit to Bruce.  (Is he showing up in May?)

It's not of recent vintage (copyright says 2010 and published 2011).

Why would a professor from Florida focus on the real estate market in Riverside and San Bernardino County?  Not sure why.

Here is where I found it.
http://docplayer.net/35509471-Development-of-a-forecasting-model-to-predict-the-downturn-and-upturn-of-a-real-estate-market-in-the-inland-empire.html
SFL

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 577
Reply with quote  #2 
It looks like this is a book and not a dissertation.   The publishing company might be in Florida, but the author might live elsewhere.

Here is an Amazon link regarding this book:

https://www.amazon.com/Development-Forecasting-Predict-Downturn-Upturn/dp/1599423944

The below "About the Author" blurb indicates that the author lives in the Northeast.  This blurb doesn't seem to fit well with the content of the book, so it seems possible that Amazon has made a mistake and identified the wrong Thomas Flynn.  There seem to be a lot of Thomas Flynns in the world.  

About the Author

Thomas Flynn is an award-winning television producer and writer. He explains that the style of this book formed as he re-read Dante's "Inferno" and began to realize how "the parallel worlds of his journey to hell and mine ran together." Flynn is married to Nancy Reardon and has a daughter, Kate. He divides his time between downtown New York City and Cape Cod.



larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #3 
Thanks for the clarification.  I didn't have much time to research it this morning.  And it might, after all, be both a dissertation----and a book that was ultimately published.  (If you are going to the trouble to write a 388 page book, you may want to see it published.  I made the inference that it was a dissertation from the name of the website).  I don't really know---and I've never heard of this website dissertation.com---before this.  Actually, this has all the earmarks of being self published---it says "print on demand" below.

Anyway, since this is a main area of interest, I thought people would be interested.

You were right---he's not from Florida (if this correct).  But the mystery remains---why does someone from New York City (or Cape Cod) choose the Inland Empire to make a prediction model for?

The main finding that he announces below---which may not be all that earth shaking---is that:

"GDP, interest rates, loan origination volume, and inflation were the four economical driving variables that completed the Inland Empire s real estate prediction model and global test."

Nothing about affordability or many of the other factors Bruce likes to referencee---so I guess his primacy as a prognosticator isn't threatened.  (I hope there is more in the book or the synopsis, which I haven't read.)

But that isn't to say that this academic couldn't help Bruce to refine his theory.  And I also think  Bruce should interview him on his radio show.  They are making models of voting patterns and all kinds of human behavior, and although this particular author may not be the best expert, it's an interesting field.

Anyway, I just thought it was really wild we have been concerned with this subject so long---and there was a book on the subject no one ever mentioned.


Here is a further description that I found of the book.

About this Item: DISSERTATION.COM, United States, 2011. Paperback. Condition: New. Language: English . Brand New Book ***** Print on Demand *****. Amidst the dramatic real estate fluctuations in the first decade of the twenty-first century, this study recognized that there is a necessity to create a real estate prediction model for future real estate ventures and prevention of losses such as the mortgage meltdown and housing bust. This real estate prediction model study sought to reinstall the integrity into the American building and development industry, which was tarnished by the sudden emergence of various publications offering get-rich-quick schemes. In the fast-paced and competitive world of lending and real estate development, it is becoming more complex to combine current and evolving factors into a profitable business model. This prediction model correlated past real estate cycle pinpoints to economical driving forces in order to create an ongoing formula. The study used a descriptive, secondary interpretation of raw data already available. Quarterly data was taken from the study s seven independent variables over a 24-year span from 1985 to 2009 to examine the correlation over two real estate cycles. Public information from 97 quarters (1985-2009) was also gathered on seven topics: consumer confidence, loan origination volume, construction employment statistics, migration, GDP, inflation, and interest rates. The Null hypothesis underwent a test of variance at a .05 level of significance. Multiple regression analysis uncovered that four of seven variables have correlated and could predict movement in real estate cycle evidence from previous data, based in the Inland Empire. GDP, interest rates, loan origination volume, and inflation were the four economical driving variables that completed the Inland Empire s real estate prediction model and global test. Findings from this study certify that there is correlation between economical driving factors and the real estate cycle. These correlations illustrate patterns and trends, which can become a prediction model using statistics. By interpreting and examining the data, this study believes that the prediction model is best utilized through pinpointing an exact numerical location by running calculations through the established global equation, and recommends further research and regular update of quarterly trends and movements in the real estate cycle and specific variables in the formula. Seller Inventory # AAV9781599423944

And there is a 25 page synopsis on dissertation.com (mentioned above).
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #4 
We seem to have books that are tackling this issue of making economic predictions.

To wit:

1. Predicting the Markets by Edward Yardeni
I haven't read it, but it not only talks about making predictions in the real estate market, but also business cycles, inflation, demographics----each chapter is arranged to discuss a category of economic prediction.  This book was published last week.

2. Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side by Howard Marks.
This one is scheduled to be published in October of this year.  This book mentions praise of its author by Warren Buffett, although I seem to recall Buffett having said you can't really predict market cycles.



Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Policy