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larrywww

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Reply with quote  #1 
The new tax law goes into effect on January 1, 2018----the Republicans aren't going to wait---not even one day.  So I'd like to hear what Bruce Norris says first.

My guess is that we are living in a kind of universal bubble encompassing:
1. Commercial Real estate.  
2. Residential real estate (Maybe less so than commercial, but the returns are so anemic for most counties my feeling is that unless you are buy and hold---why wait?  Also, Trump is like a bull in a china shop, except maybe more destructive and less predictable.  Given that the tax bill will put the markets on steroids---I'm guessing that we are going to seriously crash---eventually.  And the Fed is going to start raising rates given this kind of inflationary stimulus, so that alone might have the effect of leading towards a downturn, in any case.
3. Land.  Right now they are building only 20% of normal in Riverside and San Bernardino.  What they really end is lower end housing and this doesn't pencil, probably won't this cycle at all.  When Bruce built out  near Palmdale his land cost was $3000 a lot, which turned out to be about 1% of the finished product price ($260,000).  That is a phenomenal ratio.   You can't get lots for anything like that price----and there are alot of investors who bought lots in Victorville, the high desert, Palmdale, etc for $10K----and they still won't pencil----and probably won't pencil for this entire cycle.  Land is just way too expensive and the builders aren't going to try subdividing anytime soon since they need a better market and a longer time frame.
4. stocks
5. Bonds and other debt instruments appear to be offering relatively low yields.
6. cryptocurrencies.  The appreciation has been so dramatic that it has regulators making noises about regulating the market.   (See Bryce our Tulips expert about that---we have a separate thread for bitcoin, etc).
7. ?   I don't deal in precious metals and other alternative investments so I can't speak to that.


I hear that Bruce said on 8/31/2017 that it was his impression that we would get a recession sometime next year----and given that the Fed is going to be forced to raise rates in the meantime----why wait?
larrywww

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Reply with quote  #2 
I realize that this is the holidays.

But new 1.5 trillion tax bill just signed today (I think).

I just wanted to hear from Bruce before the New Year---any possibililty?
CapeCodGuy

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Reply with quote  #3 
I can't even log into the speaker section.

I have emailed twice and seems to be falling on deaf ears !!!

What is going on guys ????
Greg

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Reply with quote  #4 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CapeCodGuy
I can't even log into the speaker section.

I have emailed twice and seems to be falling on deaf ears !!!

What is going on guys ????


I'll check with the board.
CapeCodGuy

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Reply with quote  #5 
Thanks Greg.

I understand and appreciate that this is a volunteer position, but I still think it is pretty disappointing that the recordings take for over to go online -  and now I cant even login.

This was supposed to be part of my holiday listening and planning for 2018. I guess I'll just have to go to Audiobooks for more materials now !
CapeCodGuy

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Reply with quote  #6 
Could not access Bruce charts on the members section, but these are pretty impressive charts and an hour presentation from John Burns. This was pretty good. I hope you guys enjoy it too!

http://trs.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/1d744c75091249d29ccbd95d1db8ad0b1d?catalog=008a7334-ca7b-484f-a259-e5cd1799445f


https://www.realestateconsulting.com/where-are-we-in-the-housing-cycle/?utm_content=64800715&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

Enjoy.
larrywww

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Reply with quote  #7 
Audio posted.  Thanks, guys.
CapeCodGuy

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Reply with quote  #8 
I hate to ask you this, but could you summarize. From your posts, you are quite succinct in your summaries, others might also appreciate your analysis as well.

I am still "not allowed" to listen as I cant log in. I had to check to confirm my membership is current.
larrywww

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Reply with quote  #9 
I posted it, but under a thread about what is going on with the real estate market.  
Greg

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Reply with quote  #10 

I thought this might be a good place to ask:

Who on this board both attends the meetings (any during the year) and uses this message board ?

larrywww

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Reply with quote  #11 
I received an email today that said that sdcia has a new website.

I didn't click on anything, but do you know what they are talking about?

I thought the email was interesting because it had a tag line ("It's Alive") right out of the original Frankenstein movie.
Greg

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by larrywww
I received an email today that said that sdcia has a new website.

I didn't click on anything, but do you know what they are talking about?

I thought the email was interesting because it had a tag line ("It's Alive") right out of the original Frankenstein movie.


Looks like the website has been through a big reformat. That's why the logo isn't showing here anymore. We need to fix that.
CapeCodGuy

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Reply with quote  #13 
I am in OC, so I am not able to attend more than one to three meetings a year - depending on my schedule and quality of the speaker. For the rest I rely on the recordings on  the website.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg

I thought this might be a good place to ask:

Who on this board both attends the meetings (any during the year) and uses this message board ?

larrywww

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Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #14 
Here's a brief report on Bruce's December talk posted on Youtube from someone who attended the San Diego meeting.

Also, he includes a link to download all of Bruce's charts.

One interesting statistic is that Bruce indicates that only a handful of counties (San Bernardino, Riverside, etc) have any room to run----and the peak price he is predicting in those areas is only a small fraction away (in some cases) from peak price.  In particular, what % of price appreciation is left?

Riverside:           +1.7%
Sacramento        +5.4% 
Fresno                +5.7% 
San Bernardino   +9.1%
Kern County      +11.8% 

Some Southern California Counties are close to the peak, and/or over the predicted peak:
Orange County    -13.5% 
San Diego             -1.6%
Los Angeles         -16.1%    

Bruce assumes that we won't reach the previous artificial peak (due to unwise lending practices)----though if we do in terms of the Southern California counties, then there would be no substantial correction at all in these last 3 counties.  Maybe our expectations adjust to the last peak (even if it was an artificial one)?  I don't really know if that's true.

The counties that are seriously overvalued are the Bay Area/San Jose (and adjacent) markets.

Santa Clara County       -43.6%
San Francisco County    -64.0%


In contrast to the Bay Area (and nearby counties), in Southern California, the appreciation (if there is any) is almost within the margin of error----not substantial.  But on the plus side, Bruce isn't predicting a crash but a gradually flattening curve for alot of these Southern California counties.

Is it possible, however, that these inflated areas might represent the new normal (at least for a while)?  Not sure about that.

Greg

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Reply with quote  #15 
Cool and thanks for posting. I don't know this guy Erik Lukas but he did seem to do a fairly nice job of a recap.

lukasbmw

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Reply with quote  #16 

That's me.

I don't attend every meeting. But I always make the Bruce Norris events. 

If you guys ever want to wholesale anything out, I'm always buying at 72-78% of ARV.



__________________

Eric Lukas
858 276 0713
http://www.sellitfastca.com
7676 Hazard Center Drive
San Diego CA 92108

I love buying from wholesalers! Will pay up to 78% of ARV.

Greg

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Reply with quote  #17 
Thanks Erik.
How are you finding your wholesale deals these days?
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