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Greg

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Reply with quote  #1 
Yawn.

How many times must we read threads that start out like this? Those of you that feel compelled to repeat this story ad nausem feel free to post such tales below in this thread -only. Elsewhere such threads will be deleted unless it's really something new, special, and worthy of discussion. Your own special thread for bubble talk! Enjoy.

Greg

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Reply with quote  #2 
It's about time, and a helluva lot better treatment than RE investors receive at Ben's Mushroom Farm, where the pilgrims are kept in the dark and fed sh*t.
BayPark

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I hear crickets chirping ...

 

Guess it isn't as much fun for them this way, Greg

SMB

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Geeze, Greg, you're goign to loose half of the traffic this way, all these bubble-heads will have to find a different type of therapy.

 

Make it a sticky post.

 


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Reply with quote  #5 

Greg, they really arent taking the bait...but totally agree, maybe more threads like this so they get the hint. Deleting may be the only option.

taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #6 

The freakin sky is falling.  It is about time you created thread specifically for me to vent about how the San Deigo market is going to crash 50% in the year 2007.

 

More on that later.


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Greg

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Reply with quote  #7 
Here's one from Insider:

Looking at this article out of Tampa http://www.sptimes.com/2006/09/23/Tampabay/Finally_sold_Well__ma.shtml   Real-estate is so slow there that they are turning to auctions to sell.  Looks like people aren't getting what they thought the house was worth.  No doubt it's going to be hard for a lot of folks to refinance if their home value does not equal what they owe on the house.  This is going to be a big problem next year for all those that bought in the last couple of years as prices continue to head south.


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Gekko

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-

 

 

http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/

"Casey Serin is a 24-year-old Sacramento man who bought seven properties in four states within the first three months of 2006. Even after selling a home in Utah a few weeks ago, he’s $2.2 million in debt and will be four months behind on all of his mortgages come October.

He started a blog to tell people about his experiences and his mistakes as a novice investor — it’s called iamfacingforeclosure.com."

This time it's different.

Subcranium

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http://www.theonion.com/content/node/53191
Greg

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Reply with quote  #10 
This discussion started in the Classifieds.  It should have been here...
Greg


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Old post Today at 07:13 AM Email HiddenMarket Contact using Yahoo PM HiddenMarket Reply with quote

Oversupply of units hurts prices, leaves investors in limbo, San Diego Union Tribune, 9/24/2006

Read it online at http://SanDiegoMarketUpdate.com


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“Here's the problem: A number of people bought these apartment buildings at prices higher than what they should have paid,”

Bingo. I received unsolicited offers on my two apartment complexes a little over a year ago. They were very profitable and low maintenance for me, yet I made a deal and sold them. Why? If anyone offers me a 3.25 cap on any of my investment properties, I'm a seller. Why anyone would buy at that price will always be a mystery to me.

Gekko

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Reply with quote  #11 

-

 

RankBull - reminds me of these quotes -

 

“Sell when everyone wants it and buy when there’s blood in the streets.” – Craig Hall

 

“When someone else wants something you’ve got, and they want it badly enough, let them have it.” – Craig Hall


“When the pay window is open, sell.” – Craig Hall

RankBull

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Reply with quote  #12 

I hesitate to post this for fear of being seen as "trolling".  I am not, I am a lifelong RE investor.

 

I tend to look sideways at the folks who say that the SoCal market is tanking, I think it exposes in them a bias that from then on damages their future credibility even if they may eventually be correct.  Also, demanding data and then rejecting that data in favor of anecdote which supports their position is not helpful to them, just the opposite.

 

Is this what a tanking market looks like?

 

 

It doesn't to me because I clearly remember this:

 

 

The question obviously is:  Will the top graph soon resemble the bottom?

michaelr

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Reply with quote  #13 

I received unsolicited offers on my two apartment complexes a little over a year ago. They were very profitable and low maintenance for me, yet I made a deal and sold them. Why? If anyone offers me a 3.25 cap on any of my investment properties, I'm a seller. Why anyone would buy at that price will always be a mystery to me.

 

 

rankbull,

 

Perhaps they intended on converting the property into condos- therefore based the offer with those numbers in mind.  Opposed to an apartment building w/ a 3.25 cap which one could acheive all day long.  Dont know the details obvioulsy but it sure does sound like that type of deal. 

taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #14 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gekko


“When the pay window is open, sell.” – Craig Hall

 

I like that quote.  I also like his book.

 

What do you say when the pay window is closed?

 

 


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taddyangle

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RankBull

I hesitate to post this for fear of being seen as "trolling".  I am not, I am a lifelong RE investor.

 

I tend to look sideways at the folks who say that the SoCal market is tanking, I think it exposes in them a bias that from then on damages their future credibility even if they may be correct.  Also, demanding data and then rejecting that data in favor of anecdote which supports their position is not helpful to them, just the opposite.

 

 

 

What to you mean sideways? I think most are just stating the obvious.  I for one have seen prices decline in properties that we have owned and sold, and I have also seen prices decline in properties that we have decided to keep.  This is of course different from what the NAR publishes as they have a bias as well.

 

So I don't think your a troll, but I am assuming based on your post of the first graph that you are still seeing a positive increase in RE and that there is not an indication of price decline based on the specific graph you are viewing.  Further, you posted the second graph to show what a "tanking market" looks like, and obviously it is different from the first graph.

 

Anyway. Your graphs are completely different from the data I have for specific properties that I own in So Cal.  As an example, my vacation condo peaked at a price of $240k last year (my specific unit appraised for $235k), now there are several on the market for $199-205k.  I have other examples of similar price declines, all of which won't show up on any of the NAR reports.

 

So yes it is great to keep a positive perspective, but a dose of reality from what is actually happening on the ground trumps anything graph I see on this web site.


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Gekko

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Reply with quote  #16 

-

 

taddy - not sure if you saw this - my notes from his book -

 

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=1235748&highlight=craig+hall

RonaldStarr

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Diane Avery “Rank Bull”—CA--------------

 

Pretty chart.  Thanks.  I need my daily dose of numbers and pretty graphs or I get weak and sickly.

 

I agree with you that the bigger graph does not show a “tanking” market in the same way that the smaller one does.  However, as I look at it, it is clear to me that the increases in prices are less in the more recent months than in the earlier months.  It does look like a “topping out” market.  In mathematical terms, the first derivative is lower later than it was earlier.  Or the second derivative is negative.  So, a concave down curve.  I wish that when people create curves that they would put in the statistics: at least the first two or three derivatives for early, middle, and late portions of the graphs.

 

Good Investing and Good Posting*******Ron Starr*********

BayPark

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonaldStarr

Diane Avery “Rank Bull”—CA--------------

 

Pretty chart.  Thanks.  I need my daily dose of numbers and pretty graphs or I get weak and sickly.

 

I agree with you that the bigger graph does not show a “tanking” market in the same way that the smaller one does.  However, as I look at it, it is clear to me that the increases in prices are less in the more recent months than in the earlier months.  It does look like a “topping out” market.  In mathematical terms, the first derivative is lower later than it was earlier.  Or the second derivative is negative.  So, a concave down curve.  I wish that when people create curves that they would put in the statistics: at least the first two or three derivatives for early, middle, and late portions of the graphs.

 

Good Investing and Good Posting*******Ron Starr*********

First and second derivatives are useful for real estate ...

And to think, some people thought Calculus was a waste of time. 

RankBull

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Reply with quote  #19 

Ron, of course the top graphical illustration of the market shows no perceptible increases in median price which as you say is indeed a downward movement of the appreciation curve.  You say that "the bigger graph does not show a “tanking” market in the same way that the smaller one does" which leaves the impression unless I am misunderstanding that the larger graph does in fact show a "tanking" market, but in a different way.  Have I got that right?

 

The thing that nags at me and keeps me from forming an opinion with any measure of certainty about the "market top" theory is that I clearly remember, as an old-timer, the market from oh around '78 to '82 which experienced a 60% plus decrease in sales volume yet remained flat as a board in nominal median price before moving UP again.  That was a four year volume tank, price plateau, and then a leg up.

 

I know all of the reasons why many say this market is different, some of which are valid and some not.  I still don't share the certainty of those who claim that the future can be seen solely and only in the bottom graph.  Alot of my skepticism stems from what I hear vs. what I see.  I hear "SD is a canary in a coal mine" and that it is "tanking", etc., etc., yet what I see is that it has been an essentially flat market for two years, jinking up and down around the same level as stagnate markets do.

 

The actual data do not show the downward trend in median price that we've seen in the past and that would warrant a characterization such that a  "bust" is even in progress or whatnot which is what I'm waiting for in order to get my attention to start looking for a bottom.

 

Prices are still sky high and I see virtually no change in that where I live.  Sales volume sucks, yes, but purchases are ocurring and the prices still make no sense to me and my sense of the current market is perfectly reflected in the top graph along with the low sales numbers we've all seen.

 

For the first time in decades I paid cap gains taxes on my RE investment sales in lieu of 1031'ing and I'm now sitting on tons of mutual funds, bonds, and CD's waiting for a more clear indication of market direction.  I hope that prices here in CA come into range where cash flow is once again a viable investment option, which it is not right now, but I also think that it is possible for this market to stagnate / slightly drop for 4 or 5 years while wages and rents increase and inflation does its thing before we see another leg up.

 

I just don't feel the certitude of the righteous about the one true message of the market crash.    

RonaldStarr

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Reply with quote  #20 

Diane Avery “Rank Bull”—CA--------------

 

Uh no, I was not being that sophisticated in my response.  I suppose a more accurate response would have been: "I agree that the second graph shows a definate tanking.  And I don't see that happening in the first graph, as you point out."  Then that it looks like a topping is happening.

 

Yes, a top and a plateau look a lot alike.  I'm not sure there is a way to differenciate them.  At least I don't know a way.

 

I have stated on this forum that I expect So. CA single family home prices to decline or increase not more that about 5% over the next few years.  Maybe 3-5 years?  So, the side-ways move still looks like either a plateau or a slight decline in values coming  up.  I can't tell which direction is next.

 

From the big graph it sort of looke to me like San Diego started the slowdown in appreciation before the other counties.  From other things I have read, it seems that San Diego is a little more extreme in price and perhaps sales data than the other counties.  I don't particularly know what that means, except that the curves are a bit different.

 

I'm surprised you sold properties and just went to cash and paid the taxes.  I sold a house last year in Sacramento.  But then I bought six houses, free and clear, in OK state doing 1031 exchanges.  Of course, I'm oriented toward rental income and I'm emphasizing the cash flow rather than appreciation.  I see "being long" real estate as a generally good position.

 

Good Investing and Good Posting Pretty Pictures*********Ron Starr**********

 

 

RankBull

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Reply with quote  #21 

Good morning Ron and thanks for the response.  I did indeed sell quite a bit of my RE in the last 18 months, keeping about a third of my pieces which are older holdings, mostly paid for, and premium oceanfront residential and high end retail.  But I most certainly did not go to cash.  A small portion went into bonds and cd's, yes, but the majority went into mutual funds most of which are sector funds such as REIT's, Defense/Aerospace, Brokerages, Energy, and Int.'l (Europe), and I have been quite happy with the results so far which have far more than recouped my tax bite and had quite a nice little run-up.

 

I admire your willingness to go far and wide in your holdings because this is the reason I didn't roll my sales over and instead paid Uncle and pushed away from the table - not willing to own anywhere except where I live, or within driving distance.  I felt very happy as a seller but just the opposite as a buyer, couldn't bring myself to do it here in CA.

 

I am starting to get calls from brokers with commercial land deals that are within striking distance of making sense for commercial developement, which is what I know best, so I do see some opportunity on the horizon here just not in residential.      

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Reply with quote  #22 
I'm mystified about why people get so bent out of shape when discussing the downside of a property cycle?

From my perspective, and in respect of real estate, the question of 'when' is much more important than 'what'. I'm usually a 'glass half full' guy in respect of real estate, but after a while the laws of economics and probabability should cause any prudent investor to start taking the 'half glass empty' scenario seriously.

People are referencing issues in San Diego - but this property phenomena is worldwide and quite astonishing in its breadth. I've just sold a house in London for $855K which we'd bought in '95 for $187K. That 1200sf Victorian terrace townhouse would epitomize my definition of a bog-standard 'everymans' home - except I don't know how your 'everyman' could actually afford it. I'm listing a flat in Hong Kong which has likewise seen astounding appreciation. I sold a duplex last year in Toronto. I've friends who are investing in $750K properties in Thailand (hey, didn't they just have a coup). In the UK last month I was astounded by the hype about investing in Bulgaria & Latvia (Bulgaria & Latvia??).

So when I hear people feigning exhaustion in respect of this discussion I really have to wonder what aspect of RE investment is currently more topical? I'd love to be sanguine & hip about this but the whole property market defies common sense. And you don't get to keep your money by being sanguine & hip.

I am keeping one house and three urban building lots (see, I'm not a complete pessimist). But, I like to sleep at night and that's just not possible when I'm looking at market dynamics I truly cannot fathom.
hessj

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Reply with quote  #23 

Quote:
Originally Posted by haggis
I'm mystified about why people get so bent out of shape when discussing the downside of a property cycle?
Quote:

 

Because most are over leveraged.  This thread shows on how investors can just not watch or pay attention to any fundamentals on the market decline.  I sold both my properties in 05 and early 06.  Guess which I had to reduce and stress to sell.  But I guess threads such as "The Hispanic Community is Buying" will save us and is better to post on than what is really occurring. 

taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #24 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hessj

Quote:
Originally Posted by haggis
I'm mystified about why people get so bent out of shape when discussing the downside of a property cycle?
Quote:

 

Because most are over leveraged.  This thread shows on how investors can just not watch or pay attention to any fundamentals on the market decline.  I sold both my properties in 05 and early 06.  Guess which I had to reduce and stress to sell.  But I guess threads such as "The Hispanic Community is Buying" will save us and is better to post on than what is really occurring. 

 

LOL.

 

Listen, if you ignore it it will go away.  That is the philosophy I follow. 

 

Funny how that works, now that you mentioned it, I recall being able to get a couple of properties under contract in 2005 in about 15 days with no concessions to buyers.  In 2006, yes lowered the price, and paid concessions on properties we sold/selling.

 

Had I known the Hispanic community was going to save the day, I would have held onto those properties until next year. 


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Gekko

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Reply with quote  #25 

-

"The belief in miracles that all men cherish is born of immoderate indulgence in hope. There are people who go on hope sprees periodically and we all know the chronic hope drunkard that is held up before us as an exemplary optimist." - Jesse Livermore

 

Richard4009

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Reply with quote  #26 

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/yourlife/10255

Ben Stein's thoughts on real estate

nswaby

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Reply with quote  #27 

This is what I think of most of the posters at the bubble blogs.

 

Salt Lake Real Estate Blog

 
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gif loser.gif (25.64 KB, 11694 views)

chilipepr

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Reply with quote  #28 

Another sign of the times: http://sdcia.com/

 

SDCIA is having

Tony Alvarez

Secrets of working with Real Estate Foreclosure Agents

 

present at the Wednesday October 11th meeting.

Gekko

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Reply with quote  #29 

-

 

Big downturn seen for some home markets
Analysis of 379 metro areas forecasts double-digit declines for nearly 20 markets.
By Lex Haris, CNNMoney.com

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The housing market will get worse before it gets better - that's the finding of an analysis by Moody's Economy.com to be released Wednesday.

In the survey of 379 metro areas, the study's authors concluded that nearly 20 areas eventually could experience a "crash," or a decline of more than 10 percent from peak to trough. The most hard-hit areas will be in California, alongside the Southwest coast of Florida, and in Arizona and Nevada.

In addition to 30 areas already experiencing declines, the study predicts that 70 others will soon experience measurable declines, with drops extending into 2008 and even 2009.

Using a separate analytical approach, the study's authors found that more than 100 markets have a significant probability of experiencing declines by this time next year. The authors considered home affordability, the local job market, supply/demand, and overall values.

Those 100 areas represent nearly half of the country's housing stock. As a result, the authors write, "odds are high that national home prices will decline in 2007; the first decline in nominal national house prices since the Great Depression."

Of the 100 largest markets with forecast declines, Cape Coral, Fla., is forecasted to post the biggest drop in home prices - 18.6 percent from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2005 to the trough in the second quarter of 2007.

Moody's Economy.com forecasts that home prices in Reno, Nev., will drop 17.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008.

The authors note that the housing boom has already begun to unwind, driven by the increase in adjustable mortgage rates - putting homes further out of reach of buyers - and the decline in "flippers" who had pushed prices higher hoping for quick sales.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/03/real_estate/moodys_homeforecast/index.htm?postversion=2006100320

hessj

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Reply with quote  #30 

12% off sale in Fallbrook

 

http://www.sddt.com/News/article.cfm?SourceCode=20061005cxc

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