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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #31 

 

Along the same lines as the post above, I spoke at the Inland Empire Investment Club on Sept 26, 2006.

 

A couple of investors told me that housing prices for Temecula had dropped by 10-12% in the past 3 months. 

 

We're talking 3 months, folks.  Amazing.

 

Robert Campbell

taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #32 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell

 

Along the same lines as the post above, I spoke at the Inland Empire Investment Club on Sept 26, 2006.

 

A couple of investors told me that housing prices for Temecula had dropped by 10-12% in the past 3 months. 

 

Robert Campbell

Not to bet a dead horse, but I have already seen a 15% decrease in entry level condos in Palm Springs.  This is a very different number that what the NAR seems to think it is, but what do I know.


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #33 

 

Not to bet a dead horse, but I have already seen a 15% decrease in entry level condos in Palm Springs.  This is a very different number that what the NAR seems to think it is, but what do I know.

 

LOL.  Making reference to NAR, it reminds me of what Groucho Marx said (or in this case, would say):  "Who are you going to trust ... NAR or your lying eyes."

 

NAR (and all other industry groups) are salemen, not purveyors of truth.  Duh.

 

Robert Campbell

Subcranium

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Reply with quote  #34 
The question is do we have a big drop, or do we have years and years of flatline while inflation keeps on trucking? I have no idea. Opinions?
Gekko

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Reply with quote  #35 

-

 

 

My guess is that the top was June 2005.  I think we will have cumulative price declines totaling 20-50% (depending on location and type of home) over 3-5 years followed by 2-3 years of price stagnation followed by a return to normal long-term historical nominal appreciation of 3.5%.

 

Capital chases RETURN and it appears that capital has left/is leaving RE and is heading into the stock market just like the reverse happened in 2000-2005.

 

 

SMB

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Reply with quote  #36 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hessj

12% off sale in Fallbrook

 

http://www.sddt.com/News/article.cfm?SourceCode=20061005cxc

 

I love how people read selectively and then makes stements based on a partial quote!! I hope this is not how you make your investment decisions.

 

Jerry Kalman of RE/MAX United reported Thursday that average selling prices in Fallbrook and Bonsall dropped 12 percent in September, but that real estate markets are continuing to improve in the area, and should do so throughout the end of the year.


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Gekko

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Reply with quote  #37 

-

 

FACT: "average selling prices in Fallbrook and Bonsall dropped 12 percent in September"

 

OPINION: "but that real estate markets are continuing to improve in the area, and should do so throughout the end of the year."

 

 

SMB

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Reply with quote  #38 

FACT: Average and medium price statistics are nothing but mathematical dildos with which some people love to play. These "averages" and "mediums" don't mean that your house went down in price or any particular house went down in price or that the market went down, they just mean that what's available (or sold)  on the market today is priced 12% below what was available yesterday. So, if the majority of homes available today are 1500 sq.ft. selling for $500,000 as opposed to last year average home in 3000 sq.ft. range and price tag of $600,000, does it mean that the market went down by 20%. Oh no, says Gekko, not only did the market go down by 20%, but the houses shrank too!

 

Considering that larger homes are fewer than the smaller ones, and that the buying patters of the public can change year to year (i.e. one year people prefer to buy smaller homes, rather then big homes, and visa versa), without those additional factors, that you so conveniently forget, your "facts" are completely meaningless.

 

 


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hessj

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Reply with quote  #39 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMB

FACT: Average and medium price statistics are nothing but mathematical dildos with which some people love to play. These "averages" and "mediums" don't mean that your house went down in price or any particular house went down in price or that the market went down, they just mean that what's available (or sold)  on the market today is priced 12% below what was available yesterday. So, if the majority of homes available today are 1500 sq.ft. selling for $500,000 as opposed to last year average home in 3000 sq.ft. range and price tag of $600,000, does it mean that the market went down by 20%. Oh no, says Gekko, not only did the market go down by 20%, but the houses shrank too!

 

Considering that larger homes are fewer than the smaller ones, and that the buying patters of the public can change year to year (i.e. one year people prefer to buy smaller homes, rather then big homes, and visa versa), without those additional factors, that you so conveniently forget, your "facts" are completely meaningless.

 

 

 

Great I'll go to Fallbrook and buy as many houses I can handle.  If you don't like the reliability of the article then take it up with the author.

nswaby

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Reply with quote  #40 

NeoBoise,

 

Take a look at my new post on timing housing purchases.

 

Nigel

nswaby

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Reply with quote  #41 

"Good post,, makes me wonder which has more weight in affecting the current market, rates, media, or appreciation(high prices)."

 

That sounds like one of those transcendental meditation questions like:

 

What is the sound of one hand clapping? or

How many angels fit on the head of a pin? or ...

 

You get the point.

martialcomp

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Reply with quote  #42 

I came across the postings on this thread a few weeks back.  I used to work for a small, family owned lumber yard in North County (worked there 13 years). I was a salesman selling lumber to contractors.

 

I saw first hand what happens when a real estate market tanks. I had customers that moved to other states just to find work. Many lost their own homes. Wives and girlfriends didn't hang around either. I had 1 contractor tell me that his wife left because everyone that called their home was a bill collector.

 

This time around is no different. In fact, it will be worse. Millions of Americans waddled over to the refi trough to gorge on more green slurry debt over and over again like pigs.

 

Many older apartment buildings were converted to condominiums complete with old plumbing, old wiring and thin walls. Many of these people were counting on building equity, equity that is now gone.

 

Homes too have dropped in value. According to Zillow.com, my friends home in Oceanside has dropped to 602k from 639k. My sisters boyfriend has a home in Point Loma very close to the water. Price? was 974k, now 894k.

 

I find it absolutely amazing how stupid and arrogant the Sheeple can be.

 

I am originally from Orange County and hope to move back there someday. I won't be looking for a home until around the beginning of 2009, maybe even longer.

 

Bob Casagrand, a local realtor, writes a small column on local market conditions at realtytimes.com

 

Here is his take on September:

 

3rd Quarter 2006: San Diego Housing Market - single family attached and detached homes: House sales continue their decline. Sales for September were 2,150 homes sold; this is down 42% from last September's 3,602. For the 3rd quarter sales were 7,562, this is a 33% decline from the 11,312 sold for the same period last year. Condo sales were down 45% and detached home sales were down 38% for September. If we look at the sales over the last 4 quarters we see steady erosion in sales from quarter to quarter. Last quarter of 05 was down 10% from prior year, 1st quarter 06 was down 20% from prior year, 2nd quarter 06 was down 26% from prior year and the 3rd quarter this year is down 33% from prior year, with the last month of the quarter down 42%. The month ending inventory was 22,017, this is down almost 1,000 homes in the past 2 months. While the absolute number in inventory has declined the important inventory supply has increased slightly to 314 days. This is due to sales declining faster than the decline in inventory. Thus, we continue in a buyers market with ever declining sales and increasing inventory supply. The average detached home in inventory is 2,282 sq ft with an asking price of $899,180 where the average home sold in September was 2,494 sq ft with an average asking price of $757,227. The same trend appears with condos - Active average asking price is $470,273 and the sold asking price is $459,541. It would appear that buyers are being price selective. I think that the balance of this year will see continuing sales declines, inventory supply remaining in the 300 day region and continuing downward pressure on price.

The typical detached home sold was 2,050 sq ft with an average selling price of $626,296, this is down about 9% versus last years average of $691,608 for the same home. We see the same trend with attached homes, with this year's average of $395,936 down about 6.5% from last year. One has to be very careful with prices since you will see a lot of variance in the price changes from neighborhood to neighborhood, house style to house style, etc. However, one can conclude that in general prices are declining. These price trends will continue until we see a major downward movement in the current inventory supply of over 300 days. Buyers need to continue to be price savvy and serious sellers need to understand the importance of pricing right from the beginning.


 

Subcranium

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Reply with quote  #43 
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/10/community-in-focus-clairemont-mesa.html
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #44 

 

For the eyes of housing bears only ...

Thanks to a 19 percent increase in foreclosure activity, California leapfrogged past Texas and Florida to report the most new foreclosure filings of any state in September. The state documented 14,806 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, nearly three times the number reported in September 2005 and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 825 households — 1.3 times the national average. The state’s foreclosure activity has risen more than 40 percent over the last two months. 

San Diego County home prices dropped last month by nearly 4.5 percent, double the rate in August and the biggest year-over-year decline since 1993, DataQuick Information Systems reported Wednesday. The DataQuick figures showed an 8.1 percent drop in overall housing prices since the peak of $518,000 in November.

 

Looks like the downturn is starting to pick up a little speed.  But hang on to your shorts boys, because by my calculations, there are probably 4 or 5 more years to go before the SoCal housing bottoms out.

 

I know this tread is only for bad news, but this is good news for people with cash and a solid balance sheet, and even better news for the long-term health of the U.S. economy and middle class America.  That's why I welcome a huge correction in housing prices in the bubble markets ... and prices reverting back to normal levels of affordability.  If the mortgage regulators put an end to ultra-loose lending, I'll be even happier.  

 

Robert Campbell

 

 

 

 

 

 

duane1x

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Reply with quote  #45 

 

Listing per population ratio 1:227

(or .44%)

 

Looks pretty good next to Bend, which by my calculation is 2000:70000

(or 2.86%)

 

Is there such a thing as historical norms for this statistic?

 

Subcranium

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Reply with quote  #46 
I only linked to that one because it had our famous "flipper in trouble" from this board.

As for the ratios, I'm not sure who keeps historic numbers.

duane1x

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Reply with quote  #47 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg
Post here

 

I'm not sure why a post about TOL should get stuck in bubble talk. If it's just "homebuilders are having a bad time" fine, although that's not really bubble talk either. Maybe it falls in the old news category. Or is it that anything negative = bubble talk?

 

Moreover, if this is about sharing ideas about investing, it seems a worthwhile topic to discuss WHEN one might consider buying the homebuilders and/or which ones.

Peshe

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Reply with quote  #48 

Standard Pacific new home offers in Corona:

 

OC Register Advertisement Oct. 15, 2006

"For a limited time, buyers may enjoy reduced prices, plus up to $30,000 in incentives, including no principal and interest payments for up to six months..."

 

This is for houses priced from "the low $500,000". 

The offer comes as they "...realize that enduring value is the cornerstone of a great neighborhood." (Yates, Sr. Vice president of Sales)

 

cal

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Reply with quote  #49 
The heading for this post should read:   IN YET ANOTHER SIGN OF GOOD TIMES AHEAD FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTORS. I would like to continue investing in real estate but I don't believe anyone can make money in the real estate market right now. I can't wait till prices come down to the point that purchasing property is an investment. I'm just glad I started investing in real estate in 1999..
reijoe

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Reply with quote  #50 
RE: Tucson 0906 Stats

I like looking at this kind of data.

Sales by total units are down from 1,404 in Sep2005 to 1,077 in Sep2006, which is a 23% drop. But what I find more interesting is that sales are actually down from Sep2005, Sep2004, and Sep2003.

Sales by total value is down 23% from Sep2005 to Sep2006. And up by only 3% from Sep2004 to Sep2006, close to flat over 2 years. This doesn't mean much for individual homes values. But it means that real estate agents are fighting for their slice of a pie that is the same size pie as it was 2 years ago.

Total listings under contract (I guess this can sort of be seen as a projection of sales) is 747. The report says this is the lowest number since December 2000. But I don't think it's fair to compare one year's September numbers to another year's December numbers. To show you why, look at the drop from September to December for the past couple years:

2005: 1877 to 1236
2004: 1652 to 1282
2003: 1316 to 1104

The average decrease from September to December for 1997 to 2005 is 22.6%.

Comparing September to September, 747 pending contracts is the lowest number for as far back as the data is shown (1997). At the average drop of 22.6% to December, the number for December would be 578, which is also the lowest number for as far back as the data is shown.

I tried to tie the pending contracts number to the unit sales number, but I couldn't figure it out. I figured the average contract is a 30 day contract, so one month's pending contracts number should relate to next month's unit sales number. It looks fine until July and August, which show less pending contracts than next month's unit sales. But if you do a 60 day lag, the numbers look ok, although 1089 to 1077 is really tight compared to 2019 to 1227. Can anyone provide any insight on this?

Pending Contracts / Unit Sales
Apr: 1928 /
May: 2019 / 1526
Jun: 1712 / 1524
Jul: 1089 / 1227
Aug: 893 / 1381
Sep: 747 /1077
taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #51 

The latest spin I have been reading most about is how this will in fact be a soft landing.  Home prices will decline, but they won't plummet because the economy is strong since we are not losing jobs.

 

I would like this to be the case, but first I need to know what exactly a "soft landing" is?  Does that mean prices see a moderate correction over an extended period of time?  Or does it mean we just won't see the typical decline we would expect to see based on the run up we have had?

 

The job market is still good in so Cal, is this our saving grace?  Perhaps we only have a 20-25% correction (I estimate we have already seen 10% since the peak) because of the job market, when in fact we otherwise could have expected a 40-50% decline?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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RankBull

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Reply with quote  #52 

Speaking of "bad times", looks like gold is headed south of 560, say somewhere around 540.  That's just short term, though.  Longer term where's it going - settle in somewhere in the 400's for another 20 to 25 years?

dsmith04

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Reply with quote  #53 
Quote:
Originally Posted by taddyangle

The latest spin I have been reading most about is how this will in fact be a soft landing. Home prices will decline, but they won't plummet because the economy is strong since we are not losing jobs.

I would like this to be the case, but first I need to know what exactly a "soft landing" is? Does that mean prices see a moderate correction over an extended period of time? Or does it mean we just won't see the typical decline we would expect to see based on the run up we have had?

The job market is still good in so Cal, is this our saving grace? Perhaps we only have a 20-25% correction (I estimate we have already seen 10% since the peak) because of the job market, when in fact we otherwise could have expected a 40-50% decline?



At least in NorCal, most of the folks that didn't "make it" through the tech crash ended up in RE.  Agents, Mortgage brokers, etc.  Couple moved away, but about 90% that stayed and couldn't get a job ended up in a RE related field.
reijoe

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Reply with quote  #54 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsmith04

At least in NorCal, most of the folks that didn't "make it" through the tech crash ended up in RE. Agents, Mortgage brokers, etc. Couple moved away, but about 90% that stayed and couldn't get a job ended up in a RE related field.


That's a pretty bold statement - that 90% of the job losses in tech ended up in RE. Do you have any data that can support that?
Subcranium

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Reply with quote  #55 
http://durangoherald.com/asp-bin/article_generation.asp?article_type=news&article_path=/news/06/news061024_7.htm
JohnVosilla

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Reply with quote  #56 

'The latest spin I have been reading most about is how this will in fact be a soft landing.  Home prices will decline, but they won't plummet because the economy is strong since we are not losing jobs.

 

I would like this to be the case, but first I need to know what exactly a "soft landing" is?  Does that mean prices see a moderate correction over an extended period of time?  Or does it mean we just won't see the typical decline we would expect to see based on the run up we have had?

 

The job market is still good in so Cal, is this our saving grace?  Perhaps we only have a 20-25% correction (I estimate we have already seen 10% since the peak) because of the job market, when in fact we otherwise could have expected a 40-50% decline?'

 

In our bubble markets it is all about jobs, interest rates and toxic loans.  Keep the gravy train running and it won't be horrible just a slow grind down over a very long period. However 7% unemployment, 8.5% interest rates and elimination of option ARM's would be a total disaster..


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JohnVosilla

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Reply with quote  #57 

'My words were similar as JDSU fell through 140....120....80....50....20...5.  I'm not suggesting RE prices will follow this path of course, but bear markets DO happen. Ignore the present trend at your peril.'

 

Being the contrarian I bought JDSU this morning at a split adjusted $1.80 and business from what I've heard is better than at anytime since 2000. 


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Richard4009

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Reply with quote  #58 

Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061026/economy.html?.v=12

sdlocal619

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Reply with quote  #59 
Just wanted to post this e-mail I got. I played dumb asking a realtor about a condo in Del Cerro & the list price, comps etc... check out the e-mail I got back. Bob, The owner is upside down in his loan. I will set you up to receive listings for condos under 275 in the 92120 and 92119 zip codes. If you would like me to redefine the search I can do that also just let me know exactly what you are looking for. If I don’t talk to you sooner, have a good weekend.
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Reply with quote  #60 

"upside down" The word sends shivers.  Does anyone know how San Bernardino County and the Desert is doing in terms of foreclosures, auctions, builders?

 

 

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