Shared Top Border
sdcia_head3.jpg (14795 bytes)
SDCIA Message Board
Sign up Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment   Page 1 of 2      1   2   Next
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #1 

I heard an interview with Stephen LeVine who is about to come out with a book that basically suggests the electrical vehicle market may be maturing and that a new kind "super" battery based upon a new technology is about to be launched that will revolutionize electrical vehicles.

Here is the link, though you can't get much detail yet.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Powerhouse-Inside-Invention-Battery/dp/0670025844?SubscriptionId=0GTXKGYKAYMEARHQ58G2&tag=kcco04-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=0670025844


His new book---The Powerhouse---Inside the Invention of a Battery to Save the World (which comes out next month) states that Tesla and GM (and perhaps others) are coming out with models that cut in half the current entry level price of electrical vehicles---from roughly 70K to the price range of 30K to 35K for these new models.  (The Tesla is a very pricey--a basic model costs 70K, but if you have any options at all it is very easy to run the price up to 100K, so it's really more like a luxury car in terms of its current price.  The new cars will be at the lower end of the market, by contrast).  I think the price may have a serious impact on the car market.  After all, paying 70K on the hope you will recoup that high car price with enough savings in gas is a much more difficult proposition, than if the purchase price is roughly half that amount. 

The biggest payoff is in terms of price, but there is also said to be an expanded cruising range.  During an interview with the author, he indicates that many of the existing the Leaf/Volt/Teslas have cruising ranges of only 40 to 80 miles.  (Did I hear that right?  That number seems amazingly limited.  Maybe he was talking only about the original 2010 models, not sure.  The Tesla website says  about one of its current models that you can get 170 miles, but only if you have a "supercharger"---whereas a regular public charger will only permit you to go 20 miles, and you can receive from a 240 volt outlet 29 miles, etc.  It sounds as if the answer is that the cruising range has been expanded, and I'm not sure what the current crusing range is assumed to be, etc.)   Anyway, the new vehicles will have a cruising range closer to 200 miles.  (Some websites even say the range is closer to 300 miles, but until we are closer to a release date, we might not have a specific number).  He claims that this will be a gamechanger and it certainly seems like an important consideration given the reasonable fear that one might get "stuck" driving an electrical car in an area without chargers.  Also, it means you may find it difficult to take it on very long trips, etc).   Part of the problem is that in the current market some manufacturers offer different sized batteries with different specifications so I'm not sure what would be an apples to apples comparison with these new vehicles, although the bottom line seems to be that the current batteries are very large and very pricey, especially compared to the new technology.  Since I have NOT shopped for these vehicles, I am no authority on the current models and their cruising ranges, and only know what I have read about the new models that use new technology.

He basically suggests that there may have been a breakthrough in battery technology.  He explains that he was embedded as a journalist at the Argonne national laboratory which invented a battery 3 times more powerful than current car batteries, but smaller, the size of a book.  He says they call this NMC technology.  There's an irony here in that the US also was the original inventer of Lithium ion batteries in 1991.  But it was the Japanese who exploited the technology automotively by coming out with the Prius in 1996.  The US has seriously only been in the electrical vehicle market since approximately 2010 (approximate date).  But in 2017/2018 Tesla will come out with their "Model 3" (And GM will also have a counterpart) that will utilize this new battery technology.  He also explains that the Tesla battery is very old school really---that the Tesla inventer did NOT believe there would be a "super battery" anytime soon.  The current Tesla battery is really just a great # of AA batteries (like 8000 of them) bought from Panasonic that are strapped together.  (Yes, I really mean the same technology as the AA batteries you find in flashlights, no more advanced than that really, just more of them, etc).  Tesla was said to be very skeptical about all this talk about superbatteries, so he just used the best conventional ones. 

I have heard that Ward Hannigan already took the plunge (He bought a Nissan Leaf and has had alot fun with it.)

It's hard to discuss the book in detail since it's not even available (until next month) and also because it's about about vehicles that aren't even on the market.  But it piqued my curiosity enough that I would advise delaying a buying decision if you are currently in the market for an electric vehicle until you take a serious look at what is coming.

I suppose some buying considerations might be:

1) Maybe it's better to get a hybrid so you can do both, so you have more flexibility.  Although I don't understand why this isn't too pricey since you are basically paying for 2 vehicle engines (one really large battery and one engine).  Although I haven't priced hybrids.
2) The electrical vehicles are mechanically so much simpler with far fewer moving parts, etc. so maintenance is not quite the same headache, although a big price tag awaits when the battery on a current model finally goes kaput.  (I don't know about the cost of replacing these new batteries).
3) The horsepower considerations are not really critical because there is almost no hesitation when you put the accelerator down in a Tesla, etc.   Theoretically, you could have "muscle cars" that are electrical, though maybe not the same thing as what Detroit made and it means you will run out of charge at light speed, etc.  I think it's fair to say that most buyers just want an urban vehicle with good gas mileage, not a muscle car, in any case.
4) You need to be concerned about infrastructure and the availability of chargers.  Although one cool thing is that places like Ikea and other public places have made them available for free (as Ward has also pointed out).  Although there are relatively few spaces, so as the # of electric vehicles increases, this may seem less of a plus.  Although it is also true that if this innovation permits the electric vehicle market to increase exponentially, then (hopefully) infrastructure problem is certainly more likely to get solved.
5) I don't necessarily think the low price of gasoline is determinative since no one seems to think this is a permanent situation.
6) Technology advances are always a threat to new kinds of products.  For one thing, those who own electrical vehicles are going to find the used car market largely undercut.  Why buy a used Tesla for 40K when you can buy new for 30K plus change?  (My advice: Think of selling now if you have one, though that is up to you.  No one is going to want these cars with old batteries once they get wind of the new technology.  Also, the old Teslas and other vehicles are clearly going to take major price hits, if this hype is true, and you can buy a new vehicle with advanced technology for basically half the purchase price.  Also, there is the question whether these old electric vehicles can be retrofitted with the new technology.  Why even confront such a complicated question when you can simply buy a new one that you know WILL work with the new technology?).
7) I have the impression that alot of the government incentives for electrical vehicles may have already expired.  Has anyone researched the current incentives (if there are any)?
8) I have never been attracted to these kind of vehicles because until they come out with a greater spectrum of vehicles (and maybe even a pickup), I haven't been tempted to go there.  But if these claims are true, I am beginning to wonder whether maybe the market has matured to the point where I should take a serious look at some point.
9) It used to be you could drive in the diamond lane if you bought a Prius, which I still regard as a totally cool option to have.  If I lived in a place with gridlock, I'd be tempted to buy one used, if it still works (which I'm not sure about BTW).  Though I'm pretty sure this option will NOT be available for these type of vehicles.
10) The author also speculates that the revolutionary new batteries will also have dramatic impacts on other technologies like solar, etc.  But I think that may be more of a prediction than a reality, etc.  Although I have heard that the solar market is constantly receiving more advanced equipment.  And also that one of the most problematic issues with current solar is storing the electricity generated since the current power grid isn't really designed to receive power from homes (rather than vice versa).  If you are thinking about solar, you might want to wait and research the impact this will have on that market too.  The truth is that an improved battery technology may affect all kinds of technologies, especially solar and wind technologies that seek to generate electricity and may require improved storage solutions.
11) Admittedly the title of the book is rather overblown and offputting---save the world?  Give me a break.  But his argument is that this will help with our carbon emissions problems.  And it doesn't seem like overblown hype to claim that this might revolutionize the electrical car market and perhaps other technologies.
12) With all new technologies, there are always bugs and questions about how it will operate in practice, so we won't have any kind of track record in terms of how it works out, whether in performance, reliabliity or safety, for a few years.

Has anyone researched the electrical vehicle market and come to any conclusions?  I doubt that the car manufacturers like GM/Tesla are seriously marketing these vehicles since it might tend to depress sales of what is available on the current market and/or next year's market (until they become available).  Does anyone know when you can pre-order one of these vehicles?   If you google Tesla model 3 there is some discussion, but I haven't seen a concrete release date, although it's probably too soon for that kind of discussion since they only come out in 2017.

Full disclosure: I haven't really researched this topic yet, and I'm not even sure how much research can be done about these new cars (that aren't even on the market and won't be for like 2-3 years).  But I wondered if anyone had researched electric vehicles and had come to any conclusions about what is available now.  I see some indication that the GM model will be unveiled at the 2016 Detroit car show and go into production the latter half of 2016. That is still a few years down the road.

rickencin

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,025
Reply with quote  #2 
I think you have years to go before significantly better battery technology is readily available.  The recent drop in gas prices will also slow down the acceptance of hybrid/electric cars.  My Toyota PriusV hybrid has both an electric motor and an internal combustion engine (ICE).  The electric motor is not particularly powerful, but is quite useful in low horsepower demand situations like slowing down and stopping at a traffic light. It can cruise at 45 mph on electric motor alone.  In order to do this all the components of the car need to driven from electricity: steering, brakes, AC etc.  All the stuff normally run from a fan belt.  "Stop, Start" technology will come to non-hybrid cars and trucks. The exception to electrically driven is (waste) heat from the engine for cabin heating.  Oddly, full electric may not produce enough waste heat for this purpose.  The (ICE) engine in my Prius is off about 1/3 of the time.  I spend 90% of my time in city traffic or on freeways below the speed limit.  This approach is what Ed Begley Jr. calls "picking the low hanging fruit".  In city driving my battery stays 80% - 90% fully charged from regenerative braking (no gas used).  Full electric cars have to work harder as they run at top speed on electric motors alone.  These need to be much more powerful than the ones in a Prius.  I love the new AWD Tesla's.

Let's look at Formula 1 cars.  They are limited to 1.6 liter V6's and no more than 15,000 RPM.  This keeps the hp down (~600hp) and the top speed down.  Larger, higher revving engines could be built.  Regenerative braking and electric motors are also used.  This very expensive technology will filter down to production cars.  The Mercedes CLA45 puts out 355 hp from a 2.0 liter turbocharged four cylinder engine.  The Audi Q5 hybrid puts out 211 hp from a 2.0 liter, four cylinder engine and also has hybrid capability.  When gas prices go back up, this is the wave of the future.  Ford has had (surprisingly) good reliability out of it's (turbocharged) EcoBoost engines, even in pickup trucks.  Europe has had expensive gas and small turbocharged engines for decades.  Hybrid technology relieves "range anxiety" and the gasoline distribution infra-structure has been in place since before WWII. 

The future is Formula 1 technology.

__________________
Rick
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #3 
Rick, thanks for your contribution.  I don't have any kind of engineering background enough to understand the technical refinements of this kind of debate, so it helps.  

It sounds like your feeling is that the smart purchase (past tense) was a hybrid, and the Prius certainly was a top seller. And if you were also intelligent enough to get one of the HOV occupancy type permits, that would only sweeten the deal.  My feeling is that most people who live reasonably close to an urban area just need some cheap, basic transportation that will (hopefully) be not too pricey.  And maybe even renting a car for long trips (since you are implicitly paying for it by wear and tear anyway, and there is less danger of getting stuck in the middle of nowhere).

I was just interested because when Ward (whom I believe is a really smart guy) bought an electrical vehicle, I admit that I was intrigued.  But these vehicles were still so pricey that I wasn't really tempted to jump into this arena.  I tend to believe that predicting the future price of the cost of gasoline is really difficult, so I wasn't comfortable on doubling down on this technology by buying one.  Not to mention the fact that technological innovation has a tendency of making the early models in any new technology obsolete a little quicker than I would like.  But when they mentioned cutting the price in half for an electrical vehicle in a few years, I felt that maybe this really was a gamechanger and I should take it seriously as an automotive option.

But I also understand that we are talking about a situation several years from now, that is still on the drawing board at this point, and nothing is going to happen anytime soon, so I guess we can wait and see what happens.

And I certainly don't really comprehend the Formula 1 option at all, so I can't really comment on that, though maybe someone with more of a technical background will.


kaihacker

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 4,874
Reply with quote  #4 
One issue with electric cars that is wildly downplayed is how fast the range drops when you need to use power for other things.  Running the AC or heat in any other car is done without a second thought, but running a heater in an all electric car will make a huge difference in the range.  You start throwing in headlights, windshield wipers...etc..then turn on the heater to defrost the windows and that load really can add up fast.  The advertised range is usually preceded with the limiting term... "up to" as in "up to 80 mile range".  In the real world there can be times/conditions where the actual range will be a fraction of that figure.  

I hope technology will get there where electric is a better option.  I am optimistic about advancements in this area, and other areas, like fuel efficient turbo set ups.  

I have been driving a Prius for over 4 years, I have averaged 42MPG driving normally (I don't baby it to try to get good gas mileage).  It dose 75mph up the steepest sections of the grapevine and cajon pass with no issue (with a full load).  It has plenty of power for real world driving.  The only downside is the emotion the car seems to bring onto people...people seem to either hate it or love it.  I don't get it...for me its not a political statement...its just a car that gets good gas mileage and had a good amount of room.  I have put 2 white water kayaks inside of it and been able to close the rear hatch (they went up to the pass. seat).  Mine has about 100k miles and I would buy another one...actually it would be a toss up between the Prius and the Ford CMax.     

__________________
Gene Hacker

Passive and active real estate investment opportunities.
http://RiverLakeRE.com riverlakere@gmail.com

Home Inspections in Bakersfield and all of kern county:
http://bakersfieldinspections.com
thejq

Junior Member
Registered:
Posts: 13
Reply with quote  #5 
There is no need to buy. With technology of EV evolving so fast, the only sensible way to enjoy EV is to lease. My 2015 Fiat 500e costs me about $159/mon ($0 drive off) with 12K miles/year for 3 years after the CA state rebate. I don't think you can lease any new car with MSRP of $31K for that price. For charging, if you install a level II charger at home, and switch to SDG&E's EV-TOU2 plan, the cost of charging at night is $0.16/KWh which is equivalent to around $4.8/100 miles (30 Kwh/100 miles). It's also roughly the same cost as driving a Prius at 50 MPG. But if you also install solar panel, the cost of charging is way down. For me, it's < $0.04/KWh assuming the life of the solar system is 25 years. On top of the financial benefits, you also get the white HOV sticker for driving alone in the HOV lane and no maintenance ever, except for tire rotation and preferred parking in some places. The only inconvenience is having to plan your trip so it's less than 88 miles round trip, beyond which I drive my Prius plugin hybrid.
RobertCampbell

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 7,476
Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
Originally Posted by thejq
There is no need to buy. With technology of EV evolving so fast, the only sensible way to enjoy EV is to lease. My 2015 Fiat 500e costs me about $159/mon ($0 drive off) with 12K miles/year for 3 years after the CA state rebate. I don't think you can lease any new car with MSRP of $31K for that price.


I found your post interesting - thanks! - however as per the terms you specify above, this link shows the 3-year lease payment (with zero down) on a Fiat 5003 to be $297 per month - not $159 per month.  (I only checked one website for lease pricing info.)

I understand that $297 per month does not include the $5K CA rebate - but a $5k price discount won't close that gap of $138 per month.

http://www.caranddriver.com/fiat/500e




mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell

I found your post interesting - thanks! - however as per the terms you specify above, this link shows the 3-year lease payment (with zero down) on a Fiat 5003 to be $297 per month - not $159 per month.  (I only checked one website for lease pricing info.)

I understand that $297 per month does not include the $5K CA rebate - but a $5k price discount won't close that gap of $138 per month.

http://www.caranddriver.com/fiat/500e



My calculation shows that $5k divided by 36 months = $138.89.  Looks like his math of $159/month is correct after the $5k rebate.

__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
thejq

Junior Member
Registered:
Posts: 13
Reply with quote  #8 
There're many regional specials. For example, http://www.mossyfiat.com/specials/new.htm , currently Mossy Fiat has the 2015 500e for $197/mon, 10K miles/year, $0 down, 36 month lease. When I got mine last year, the deal was $199/mon but 12K miles/year. So $197 + tax = $214/mon. You also get the $2500 CA rebate (not $5K). So $2500/35 payments = $71, and $214-71 = $143/mon. But of course you can always negotiate to get more miles/year. My payment is $230/mon with tax ($159 after rebate) which incl 12K miles/year, eSports package and sunroof. I'm kicking myself for not getting 15K miles/year as I'm driving it alot more than I expected. Did I mention, Fiat also gives you 12 days of free rental per year in case you need to drive far?
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #9 
IIRC, the Tesla has 3 battery sizes with 160-, 230- and 300-mile range.  As Gene pointed out, the moment you start using A/C and other components, the mile range can drop significantly.  A couple of friends found out the hard truth about owning Tesla.  They said that their electricity bill went through the roof even though they were charging them at night.  Both ended up installing solar panels.  They basically told me that if I want a Tesla, solar panel is a must. 

Have you test driven the Tesla.  The acceleration is amazing, and it's quiet too.  My in-law told me that the new P85D has over 600 HP with 0-60 in just over 3 seconds.  He said there are 3 buttons in the car: one is normal driving; one is sport driving; and one is insane driving.  [biggrin]

I used to be a Lexus LS460 or MBZ S550 guy.  At one point, I was thinking of a Tesla or a Ferrari, but that is no longer the case.  My next car would likely be a Prius V.  Affordable, practical and you get the most bang for your bucks as Rick pointed out above.  Electric car makes a lot of sense if you have solar panels and your daily driving is 50 miles or less.  Otherwise, Prius is the way to go.  

Eventually, I see most families will have an electric/hybrid car and a gas car.  The gas car would be used for long distance travels.  It just makes sense. 


__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
thejq

Junior Member
Registered:
Posts: 13
Reply with quote  #10 
Yes, with AC on, the range will be cut by 15-20%. But with sunroof, I've only used it once since Sept last year. Tesla costs a little more electricity to drive, 35KWh/100 miles, since it's bigger and heavier. And yes, Solar will make the economics of EV much more compelling. 
RobertCampbell

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 7,476
Reply with quote  #11 
Quote:
Originally Posted by thejq
There're many regional specials. For example, http://www.mossyfiat.com/specials/new.htm, currently Mossy Fiat has the 2015 500e for $197/mon, 10K miles/year, $0 down, 36 month lease. When I got mine last year, the deal was $199/mon but 12K miles/year. So $197 + tax = $214/mon. You also get the $2500 CA rebate (not $5K). So $2500/35 payments = $71, and $214-71 = $143/mon. But of course you can always negotiate to get more miles/year. My payment is $230/mon with tax ($159 after rebate) which incl 12K miles/year, eSports package and sunroof. I'm kicking myself for not getting 15K miles/year as I'm driving it alot more than I expected. Did I mention, Fiat also gives you 12 days of free rental per year in case you need to drive far?


Thank you very much for the reply. 

I've never financed or leased a car - so this is all new information to me.

Other than buying real estate, I've always lived by the rule that if you can't write a check for it - you can't afford it.  But $143 per month IS definitely cheap!  At 15 MPG around town, I spend that much money per month on GAS for my pimped out Ford Explorer.


kaihacker

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 4,874
Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by thejq
Yes, with AC on, the range will be cut by 15-20%. But with sunroof, I've only used it once since Sept last year. Tesla costs a little more electricity to drive, 35KWh/100 miles, since it's bigger and heavier. And yes, Solar will make the economics of EV much more compelling. 


I imagine the heater would have a pretty major effect as well (even more so than the AC).  Have you noticed a decline when you use the heater?  

__________________
Gene Hacker

Passive and active real estate investment opportunities.
http://RiverLakeRE.com riverlakere@gmail.com

Home Inspections in Bakersfield and all of kern county:
http://bakersfieldinspections.com
thejq

Junior Member
Registered:
Posts: 13
Reply with quote  #13 
The car has heated seats which is more energy efficient since it heats up your behind directly. I used it a few times and didn't notice much significant mileage penalty.
kaihacker

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 4,874
Reply with quote  #14 
Heated seats makes a lot more sense than traditional heater vents in terms of saving power.  Dose the car also have a heater that blows through the vents?  Obviously a effective heater is less important in So Cal that most of the nation that experiences sub-freezing temps in winter.  

I just saw a local dealer advertise a $99 a month lease on the electric fiat.  I wonder if Fiat is making money on these.  I have read that Toyota still looses money on the Prius, but I have also read other places that its not true...that they are profitable.  Hard to know...


__________________
Gene Hacker

Passive and active real estate investment opportunities.
http://RiverLakeRE.com riverlakere@gmail.com

Home Inspections in Bakersfield and all of kern county:
http://bakersfieldinspections.com
thejq

Junior Member
Registered:
Posts: 13
Reply with quote  #15 
Quote:
Heated seats makes a lot more sense than traditional heater vents in terms of saving power.  Dose the car also have a heater that blows through the vents?  Obviously a effective heater is less important in So Cal that most of the nation that experiences sub-freezing temps in winter.  


Yeah, it has a conventional heater/vent also, but I haven't really used it.

I'm sure Fiat loses lots of money selling/leasing the 500e. Their CEO was quoted saying that they loses about $14K each selling at MSRP. With the insane lease deals, they are practically giving them away. But they have to sell/lease them in order to meet conformance in CA. In CA, the brand needs to meet certain MPGs. Unlike others, Chrysler/Fiat does not have enough fuel efficient car sales to offset their hot selling 700 hp Hellcats, Challengers and Rams. That's why the 500e is only sold in CA and OR.
Halseth_18

Member
Registered:
Posts: 1
Reply with quote  #16 
Yeah I also agree that electrical vehicle market is maturing day by day and these cars are becoming favorite of many people. I also have recently decided to buy an EV soon so have just started reading Electric car buyers guide as well.
rickencin

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,025
Reply with quote  #17 
Tesla announced plans for a Pickup Truck and SUV (Model Y) in future years.  Elon Musk has yet to make good on his Model 3 claims (and ramping up the Lithium Ion Battery Giga-Factory).  He seems to be better at announcing aggressive goals than delivering.  Still, more practical electrical vehicles may become available in coming years.  Lithium Ion power tools have already changed the construction industry.

https://electrek.co/2017/12/26/elon-musk-tesla-pickup-truck-coming-after-model-y/

__________________
Rick
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #18 
Yeah, an electric (or at least hybrid) pickup---that's what I want.

Ford says it will have an F 150 hybrid in 2020.  I hear it's coming.  But it's not easy---pickups carry alot of weight and need alot of power, especially if you want a big pickup.   The gas efficient hybrids don't weigh much and are very aerodynamic.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/30/electric-cars-are-taking-off-whats-the-problem-with-an-electric-pickup-truck/?utm_term=.df17a55f6795
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #19 
So much misinformation was given to me by two friends who own a Tesla. I don't have much data to share yet given I've owned the car for just over 3 months. Below are the delta in my electric bill YoY. It basically went against whatever my friends told me. 

Oct - +$4 (Charged twice at home to test the new electrical outlet and used the Supercharging station for 4-5 times for the month). Put about 600 miles on the car.
Nov - +$23 (Started to charge at home and didn't go back to the Supercharging station). Put about 850 miles on the car.
Dec - +$13 (Been charging at home and haven't gone back to the Supercharging station). Put about 700 miles on the car.

Here are some additional information which likely impacted the bills. When I got my car, I called PG&E to change my utility plan to an EV plan. My billing used to be on Tiers (Tiers 1, 2 and 3). The EV plan is billing based on peak, partial-peak and off-peak hours.

Peak hours are 2pm-9pm M-F and 3pm-7pm on weekends and holidays. Billing rate is $0.32018/kWh for Winter months. Summer months are $0.45389
Partial peak hours are 7am-2pm and 9pm-11pm M - F. The billing rate $0.19794/kWh for Winter months. Summer months are $0.24986/kWh
Off-peak hours are 11pm-7am M-F and all other hours outside of 3pm-7pm on weekends and holidays for Winter months. Summer months are $0.12225/kWh. This is when I charge my car.

I also applied and got a $500 rebate check from PG&E within a week. No need to install solar yet. 

In general, the battery depletes about 3-4 miles/day regardless if you drive it or not. You lose an additional 5% of the battery life if you don't use A/C or heater and drive normal. I guess it's because of other electronic usage, which you can shut down. You lose around 10% if you use A/C and/or heater. You lose total 25-30% of the battery life if you drive it hard. This includes battery depletion, usage of A/C and/or heater and driving it hard. However, if you take it easy on the car, you can actually extend the range of the battery. You lose a lot of battery when you go uphill, but you get it back when you go downhill.

I've driven my car to 14% of the battery life and have also charged it to 100%. Tesla recommends not to drive it below 20% and only to charge it to 90% to preserve the life of the battery. However, it's ok to charge it to 100% for long road trips. When you hit 20% battery life, the battery bar goes from green to orange. I'm still experimenting the car. More than happy to answer any questions if I know. 

In hindsight, the Toyota sales guy didn't do a good job at selling me the Prius V when I went in there in Spring 2015. So I waited and kept my old car for another 2.5 years before buying the Tesla. Couldn't be happier with the decision. This proves life is a box of chocolate.

Trucks aren't cheap. Not sure why Elon Musk doesn't go after this market sooner. I don't tweet. Otherwise, I would ping him. I would love to get a truck for my dad. 

__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #20 
So many companies are getting into making electric cars now, so it's apparent that the timing is ripe and electric cars are here to stay...so I hope. However, Tesla is the only company with the best supercharging infrastructure. Now they just need to make 500-mile range cars so that would be like a 150 kWh battery pack. I already see it happening in a few years. 

For an apples to apples comparison, I calculated my actual electricity usage with my (former) gas bill. Average is about 10,000 miles per year. 

MBZ E500 - 10,000 miles/yr : 18 miles/gal : $3.50 miles/gal = $1,944/yr on gas

Tesla Model S 75D - (.305 kWh/mi * 0.1225kWh * 1.25 energy loss) * 10,000 miles/yr = $466/year on electricity

So the delta in energy consumption is $1,478/yr. My car insurance bill went up to $1,356/yr from $780 so the savings is more than enough to cover the insurance cost increase. Also, I get to use the diamond lane for at least another year. One time fee for the carpool sticker is $22. I don't use it much as my working hours are normally between 11am - 2pm.

Below is the screen shot of how I drive the car in the last few days as a test. As you can see, I could get wild with my driving and racked up 340Wh. I intentionally turned on the heater every time. It was raining so I wanted to take it a little hard to see if the car would slip, but the traction control is superb. Earlier today, I drove it to lunch. Took it a little hard on the way there, but took it easy on the way back and got 257 Wh/mi. Heater was off the whole time.

So you extend the range of the car by taking it easy on the pedal or driving like an ass and consuming more energy. However, it's still cheaper than owning my previous gas car when it comes to energy consumption, and it's supposedly better for the environment. The ability to drive in the carpool lane is a huge plus for people who commute for work during peak hours. 

Why averaging 305 Wh/mi Minh? I'm still in the honeymoon period, and I've been giving a lot of people test drive on the car. Siblings, relatives, in-laws, friends, neighbors, investors, potential investors, etc... [biggrin] I love the car as much as the first day I took possession of it. I already see myself upgrading to a P150D when it comes out so I can take it to LA w/o worrying about the range. I initially regretted not buying the P100D from the get go because I wasn't fully convinced. Looking back, it was a good decision because I can put the delta into my next Tesla. 

If you want to go electric, buy a Tesla. If you have midlife crisis, buy a Tesla. If you want to feel 10 or 30 years younger, buy a Tesla. It will be one of the best decisions you've ever made IF YOU CAN AFFORD IT. I guarantee it. 

Sincerely,

Minh, The New Tesla Fan Boy!

Tesla Usage Screen Shot.jpg 

 


__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #21 
I haven't shopped for a pure electric, but doesn't a 2017 Tesla S cost $68,000?

I hope it works out for you, however, it might take alot of mileage to make it better than a hybrid--I don't know.

For what you paid for a Tesla, you could buy 2 Prius Hybrids----just saying.

I'm wondering if----as the technology improves, the prices won't come down??

Anyway, these are the statistics that I am seeing:

2017 Tesla Model S
Luxury vehicle
MPGe: Up to 102 city / 107 highway
MSRP: From $68,000
Range: 210 to 315 mi battery-only
Horsepower: 382 to 691 hp
Curb weight: 4,469 to 4,941 lbs
60
$68,000
75
$69,500
60D
$73,000
 
rickencin

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,025
Reply with quote  #22 

Quote:
Originally Posted by mlreits

I already see myself upgrading to a P150D when it comes out so I can take it to LA w/o worrying about the range. I initially regretted not buying the P100D from the get go because I wasn't fully convinced. Looking back, it was a good decision because I can put the delta into my next Tesla. 

 

Let's see the P100D has a 0 - 60 mph time of 2.5 seconds.  So you're getting the P150D because it is "practical".  I guess it is a coincidence that the more batteries you have the more current you can deliver and the farther you can go.

Do let us know how reliable the car has been every time it turns over another 10,000 miles. In theory the drivetrain needs far less maintenance than a gas driven car.  Unfortunately I've been spoiled by Honda and Toyota quality.  
 
Tiny Houses - Cool, Single Wides - still Lame.

Fives. 5S: sort, straighten, scrub, systematize, and standardize. 5M’s: Manpower, Machines, Materials, Methods, Measurements. Five golden rules: (1) Go to the gemba (factory floor) when problems arise, (2) check gembutsu (anything in the workplace), (3) take temporary countermeasures on the spot, (4) find and eliminate the root cause, and (5) standardize to prevent recurrence.  (Imai, Gemba Kaizen, 2012 p. 398) 




__________________
Rick
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #23 
Quote:
Originally Posted by larrywww
I haven't shopped for a pure electric, but doesn't a 2017 Tesla S cost $68,000?

I hope it works out for you, however, it might take alot of mileage to make it better than a hybrid--I don't know.

For what you paid for a Tesla, you could buy 2 Prius Hybrids----just saying.

I'm wondering if----as the technology improves, the prices won't come down??

Anyway, these are the statistics that I am seeing:

2017 Tesla Model S
Luxury vehicle
MPGe: Up to 102 city / 107 highway
MSRP: From $68,000
Range: 210 to 315 mi battery-only
Horsepower: 382 to 691 hp
Curb weight: 4,469 to 4,941 lbs
60
$68,000
75
$69,500
60D
$73,000
 


It's definitely working out for me. Worth every penny I paid for it. Feel joyous when I'm driving it and feel satisfied when I'm cleaning it once a week too. The car is always clean inside out. Just the way I like it.

This car delivers several components that a hybrid can't compare. It has performance, goes 0-60 in 4.2 sec although the enthusiasts claimed 3.82 to 3.96 sec when they clocked it. It has 4 doors, which makes the wife happy. Its safety rating is great too, 5 stars. So it has everything I was looking for in a car. 

The price actually has come down quite a bit compared to when it first came out. A lot of the upgrades have become standard in this car. When I was looking at it in 2012, it was $125k for a P85 fully loaded. A tennis friend bought one when it first came out. I was looking at it but didn't know how to afford it till now.

This car has the same performance as the P85 with a base price of $74,500. 100D starting price is $94k with 335 mile range and $135k for the P100D with 315 mile range.

I have no doubt prices will come down in the future with better technologies and competitions, and I hope they do sooner rather than later so it's much cheaper when I go to upgrade in 5 years. I've already written off this purchase over 5 years so it's all good while I enjoy the ride.

__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #24 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickencin


Let's see the P100D has a 0 - 60 mph time of 2.5 seconds.  So you're getting the P150D because it is "practical".  I guess it is a coincidence that the more batteries you have the more current you can deliver and the farther you can go.

Do let us know how reliable the car has been every time it turns over another 10,000 miles. In theory the drivetrain needs far less maintenance than a gas driven car.  Unfortunately I've been spoiled by Honda and Toyota quality.  
 
Tiny Houses - Cool, Single Wides - still Lame.

Fives. 5S: sort, straighten, scrub, systematize, and standardize. 5M’s: Manpower, Machines, Materials, Methods, Measurements. Five golden rules: (1) Go to the gemba (factory floor) when problems arise, (2) check gembutsu (anything in the workplace), (3) take temporary countermeasures on the spot, (4) find and eliminate the root cause, and (5) standardize to prevent recurrence.  (Imai, Gemba Kaizen, 2012 p. 398) 





Hi Rick,

The 75D is quite fast so I'm not sure if I can handle the P100D. Practical is all relatively. [wink] I need a longer range battery so I drive it to SoCal as I love to drive the car so much. Wife is happy as long as it's a 4-door so the Tesla Roadster is going to be a tough sell when that day comes. However, it gives me motivation to do better for the next several years so I can afford to write a check for it when that day comes. 

I'll sure keep everyone posted on the reliability of the Tesla if interested. It comes with 4-year 50,000 mile warranty. When the warranty is up, there's an option to extend it another 4-year warranty or up to 100,000 miles for $4,400 ($1,100/yr).

Honda and Toyota make reliable cars no doubt. I've always loved Honda more than Toyota. The acceleration is better IMO. Wife (girlfriend then) used to own a 1991 Acura Legend Couple. I loved that car. Bought her a new Acura MDX in 2017. So far so good.

__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #25 
I would argue that, depending on your circumstances, the Prius hybrid is a good choice too.

Namely:

1) You have the option to use either gasoline or electric
2) You can buy 2 Priuses for what this Tesla cost, although clearly you don't need to economize.
3) You can recharge it at home and can go 29 miles on electric only.  And you can use a regular 110 outlet.
4) Toyota has been building hybrids longer than almost any other carmaker.
5) I'm not sure if acceleration is a major issue, especially in the Bay area, as you speed from traffic jam to traffic jam in one of the highest traffic density areas.
6) You have the state and federal rebates, the rebate from the electrical utility, the right to drive in the diamond or HOV lane, alone.  You also have rebates if you want to invest in a higher capacity charger, or you can open an account with commercial charging stations.
7) Toyota (allegedly) has discounts, or you can lease it at favorable rates, though in terms of the rebates for a purchase, since you can't really buy it at a dealer at the listed MSRP anyway (in my limited experience), this may be largely illusory. 
8) You have the following mileage guidelines:
2017 Toyota Prius Prime
EPA Fuel Economy 1 gallon of gasoline=33.7 kWh Show electric charging stations near meElec + Gas Reg. Gas
Combined MPG on Electricity:133 MPGe Combined
MPG on Gas Only:54 MPG combined city/highway combined city/highway

133 highway miles is impressive, though I think they arrive at this figure by counting the first 29 miles as being on electric only, so those miles are (basically) free.
8) For an older, frugal person, it's a good car---since how many trips do you take that are more than 29 miles long?  (Your mileage clearly may vary).  And even if you have a longer trip, you may have the option to recharge at your destination.

But I sure would like to be having this conversation about a hybrid and/or electric pickup truck, given its utility.
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,066
Reply with quote  #26 
As of now, it's no doubt electric cars are here to stay thanks to Elon Musk. It seems like other car makers are chasing Tesla to make electric cars. It took one man to change the automobile industry for the better. Thanks Musk. 

If saving is the main objective, the Prius hybrid wins hands down. I ran the math. That was the reason why I wanted to buy the Prius V in spring 2015. However, the Prius V didn't the performance I wanted. 

Tesla has all 4 things I was looking for: 1) Safety, 2) Sport Performance, 3) 4 doors, 4) Saving on gas. Prius doesn't have the performance like a Corvette, which I wanted to get but wife said no due to it being a 2-door. Instead of owning 2 cars, this one car does it for me. It's a joy to drive everyday. I almost settled for the more practical Prius V. In hindsight, it was a good thing the purchase didn't happen. 

My little brother just bought a Mustang (midlife crisis?) while my older sister is eyeing to upgrade her Camry. They asked if I have an investment to help them pay for it. I just passed them an off-market deal where I was going to flip it. Purchase price is $355k, rehab will be about $25k. Estimated exit value of $470-$475k. Highest sold comp in the complex is $440k, but the unit wasn't updated. We'll see if it will come to fruition. Hoping for a $60k net profit but will not cry if it's $80k due to the lack of inventory. The address of the 2/2 condo is 109 Camino Plaza in Union City. 

My philosophy has been "Make more money so I can give more and spend more." However, the joy is sharing the wealth along the way with my beloved ones. As my license plate frame stated "If you can dream it, you can achieve it." Now....on to the next dream which is to help 3 friends buying a Tesla. That's one of my new assignments.


__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
kaihacker

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 4,874
Reply with quote  #27 
I enjoy watching the innovation which Tesla pushes but I am not sure how viable the business really is.  The quarterly losses are staggering even with massive govt subsidies.  And I am surprised the market is so forgiving when reality falls short of what is promised at all the big announcements.  There is also the fact that tons of competitors are gunning for market share.  

I have owned two 3rd generation Toyota Prius cars.  I bought the first one brand new during Obama's cash for clunkers. It was a 2010.  It started burning oil at 100k.  It is at 170k now and has been basically reliable other than having add oil (and the usual consumables - tires/brakes/etc). 

We bought a 2015 Prius used with 31k miles for $14,900 recently.  I am hoping they fixed the oil burning issue but I doubt it. 

My average MPG is significantly lower than what others report but I drive pretty aggressively and I live in the mountains so there is a lot of steep grades.

I looked at getting a plugin version but because we have a big house and it is all electric (including our well), we get pushed into a higher tier on our electric bill each month.  If we added the load to recharge an electric car and had to pay the higher tier rate, it would be more expensive than our gas/hybrid Prius.

I am not sure if SCE would change our tiers to give us a higher base tier if we had an electric car.  

At the end of the day, personally, I want the flexibility of being able to get gas whenever needed.  I hate the idea of being limited by the range of an electric car. 




__________________
Gene Hacker

Passive and active real estate investment opportunities.
http://RiverLakeRE.com riverlakere@gmail.com

Home Inspections in Bakersfield and all of kern county:
http://bakersfieldinspections.com
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #28 
I've been waiting for some kind of hybrid pickup truck to show up.  Instead, it seems like Chevy and other manufacturers are going to be making diesel pickups.  Chevy is going to be making its first diesel 6 cylinder engine for 2018 for its F 150.  I don't really know if that is a better idea, but it seems that some manufacturers are taking this route.  I don't know how easy it's going to be to make diesels comply with the pollution control laws---I have a suspicion that there was a good reason why Volkswagen had to phony up their data---and they've been making diesels longer than almost any other car manufacturer.



rickencin

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,025
Reply with quote  #29 
Quote:
Originally Posted by larrywww
I've been waiting for some kind of hybrid pickup truck to show up.  Instead, it seems like Chevy and other manufacturers are going to be making diesel pickups.  Chevy is going to be making its first diesel 6 cylinder engine for 2018 for its F 150.  I don't really know if that is a better idea, but it seems that some manufacturers are taking this route.  I don't know how easy it's going to be to make diesels comply with the pollution control laws---I have a suspicion that there was a good reason why Volkswagen had to phony up their data---and they've been making diesels longer than almost any other car manufacturer.



Ah, the much anticipated 2018 Chevy F150. 
RAM already has a V6 3L diesel for the 1500.  RAM (2500 and 3500) has had the most desirable diesel, the 6.7L inline 6 cylinder Cummins for quite a while.  
Hybrid trucks require a lot of changes.  It is not just sticking a battery and electric motor on a truck.  Actually that's kind of what the Chevy Silverado Hybrid did, but it wasn't well received.  Everything on the engine running off a fan belt needs to run off the battery.  Electric steering.  Car/Truck enthusiasts hate this.  Electric brakes, water pump etc.  About the only thing that stays conventional is the heater running off waste engine heat.  Internal Combustion Engines do a fine job of generating waste heat. (Not so much Tesla electrics.)  There is a combined starter/alternator/regenerative braking generator/hybrid drive motor that is highly integrated.  Stop/Start technology is the gateway to Hybrid.  Most truck buyer's heads would explode if you tried to sell them a CVT transmission (also highly integrated).  
It seems that diesel fuel and diesel engines are good at pulling heavy loads and cruising at low rpms.  Gasoline engines are good at quick acceleration and high rpms.  I share your suspicion of diesel's passing emissions testing and remaining a viable technology into the future.  Supreme gas is about 20 cents more a gallon than Regular.  Diesel is about a nickel more than Supreme.  That kind of cuts into savings.  This changes all the time. FWIW my 2011 RAM 1500 5.7L Hemi has been very reliable, but I don't push it hard.
My personal favorite of the moment is the Ford Transit 350 high roof Van with the 3.5L V6 eco-boost engine with 310 horsepower.  You may not be able to put a refrigerator or tree in the back, but it has a huge lockable area.  You can even get one with windows and removable passenger seats if you need an occasional family hauler (crew cabs are wildly successful).

__________________
Rick
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,309
Reply with quote  #30 
There are a variety of rebates, both state and federal, that are available with the Prius Prime, including a tax rebate from the IRS.

Edison offers a $25 monthly credit on your bill.

I also found out that if you charge you car after 10 pm you pay 13 cents a kilowatt hour, versus 36 cents peak hours, or 27 cents at other times.

So, you can save about 2/3 of your electrical bill if you charge up after 10pm.

Other electrical providers may offer similar deals.

According to Toyota, it can take 5 hours and 30 minutes to recharge it on a 110 volt circuit, versus 2 hours and 10 minutes on a 240 volt charger.  But then you would have to install one in your home (or get a card to use a commercial charger).

The only rebates I'm aware of for a 240 volt charger would be if one installed it at a business.
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Policy