Shared Top Border
sdcia_head3.jpg (14795 bytes)
SDCIA Message Board
Register Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment   Page 2 of 2      Prev   1   2
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #31 
Did I see where Elon Musk lost 1 billion on Tesla in 3 months?   WTF?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/tesla-lost-1-billion-in-3-months/news-story/12ab1b2c198c2b28605cc4fa9e30e513


Mybad, it was actually 2 billion dollars, here is more of the story.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16986396/tesla-2017-full-year-earnings-model-3-production

I'm not sure I would invest in a car if the car company is losing money.  It's not a good sign---
Just saying.
kaihacker

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 4,870
Reply with quote  #32 
2 Billion in losses is staggering.  It is amazing that the stock price has not reflected this. The Tesla market cap is illogical considering actual sales/performance.
__________________
Gene Hacker

Passive and active real estate investment opportunities.
http://RiverLakeRE.com riverlakere@gmail.com

Home Inspections in Bakersfield and all of kern county:
http://bakersfieldinspections.com
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #33 
I think Elon Musk is a gambler to a certain extent---but I'm not saying that in an entirely negative way since alot of his capitalist forebears were gamblers too.  The question is whether he is taking measured risks or just speculative gambits.

The Model S made by Tesla was (I hear) very reliable----but the Tesla 3 hasn't proved nearly as reliable (more like average).  Alot of his current financial problems relate to problems in manufacturing the Tesla 3.

The stunning thing is that Tesla products are extremely pricey---and, at least until this year, most consumers seemed to like them----although an eletrical car is (arguably) a simpler car to make, assuming you can figure out the battery.

Space X has had some significant successes, although alot of rockets that have blown up too.
In the early years when they had contracts with NASA, Space X made money.

But more recent financial reports are not at all reassuring.  

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-spacex-really.aspx

There seems to be a kind of "Wild West" ethic that he brings to business---which sometimes pays off---sometimes not.

Don't get me wrong---I'm glad he founded Tesla----he singlehandedly has given America alot of automotive related jobs.  But he seems hit and miss in his ventures.  

rickencin

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 989
Reply with quote  #34 
Quote:
Originally Posted by larrywww


The Model S made by Tesla was (I hear) very reliable----but the Tesla 3 hasn't proved nearly as reliable (more like average).  Alot of his current financial problems relate to problems in manufacturing the Tesla 3.



The lure of social organization is that the whole is more than the sum of the parts.  Isolated hermits seldom develop graduate studies in physics. The socially well adjusted, honest,  hardworking employee can be hard to find.

I saw a TV show about the Tesla car factories.  It was all assembly lines and robots.  Automobile manufacturing has been highly studied.  This is not necessarily the Toyota Production System or the Lean Manufacturing way.  Robots don't join quality circles and practice continuous improvement.  Assembly lines don't have the best reputation, even though work needs to move from station to station.  Changing an automated assembly line is a big friggin' deal requiring engineers, scheduled down time and is done only if really necessary.  Human workers are quite clever in spotting better ways to do a job.  Human suggestions often cost next to nothing. The TV show had no mention of Jidoka or Autonomation (automatic specification checks).  The end of the assembly line is the worst place to find defects. No Visual Management or Six Sigma Quality control anywhere to be seen.  

I'm sure robots and assembly lines can build cars.  If will be interesting to see if they can better human beings (cue "John Henry Was A Steel Drivin' Man")

“It is easy to copy something in form but not as easy to capture the spirit that makes it work.” Setsuo Mito, The Honda Book of Management, 1990, p. 31


__________________
Rick
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #35 
On the other hand, Elon Musk has a plan for many small satellites to give the world fast broadband.

I do respect his entreprenuerial vision, even if some things don't quite work out.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/18/technology/future/spacex-launch-paz-demo-starlink/index.html
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #36 
Did anyone want to acquire a signature Elon Musk flamethrower?  

Musk was selling flamethrowers to raise money for his tunneling project so he could avoid LA gridlock by bulding a road and tunneling beneath the streets.  The flamethrowers sold out in 4 days.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/01/technology/flamethrower-elon-musk-boring-company-sold-out/index.html

It's amazing the various projects he is pursuing.

You think he would throw in the flamethrower if I bought a Tesla 3?
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #37 
The other interesting Tesla product----they sell a Power Wall----home Solar.

They mention it as an alternative to a backup generator, for example.

But it seems very pricey at over 6000 dollars.

Home Depot sells an 80 watt solar panel for a thousand dollars, which may have a similar aim.

Has anyone ever tried this?

https://www.tesla.com/powerwall

kaihacker

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 4,870
Reply with quote  #38 
There was a lot of hype when the new roof tiles with solar cell were introduced. Tons of media outlets released the story stating that the were comparable in price to existing options.  I did the math and just did not find this to be accurate. The hype is over the top.  Occasionally it seems to actually play out, but there have been a lot of misses.  The hype sure seems to work when you look at the stocks market cap. 


__________________
Gene Hacker

Passive and active real estate investment opportunities.
http://RiverLakeRE.com riverlakere@gmail.com

Home Inspections in Bakersfield and all of kern county:
http://bakersfieldinspections.com
larrywww

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 2,185
Reply with quote  #39 
I don't disagree with your evaluation, Gene.

But I have somewhat mixed feelings about Elon Musk.  Tesla is having serious problems, as my original indictates.

But  Tesla (in its original models) was really quite a technical achievement---I mean, why didn't Toyota or Honda, etc do it?

It's funny because the way Tesla was financed----the only way that Musk could get financing was through a government technology funding program----that the Trump administration proposes to eliminate.   Although i am somewhat wary of some of his products, Tesla is one of the few American success stories in the automotive field lately.

And I also think you must acknowledge that he is risk taking entrepreneur----and sometimes it works out---and sometimes it doesn't.

But I can't help but admire his pluck.  This country need more innovators like him.

That said, i'm not going to buying the Power Wall---as you mentioned.

mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,033
Reply with quote  #40 
I agree, not only our country, but the world needs more innovators or shall I say visionary like Elon Musk. There are only a few visionary individuals in our lifetime and Elon Musk is one of them IMO. Jeff Bezo and Steve Jobs are the other two. I don't think Bill Gates fits in this category.

Being an entrepreneur, one has to take calculated risks. Building infrastructure such as supercharging stations, gigafactory cost big bucks. Initial capital investment is required thus losses are inevitable. The fact the the stock didn't budge much with missing forecasts meant there are big backers and believers in TSLA. 

Elon Musk has changed/disrupted the auto industry. All auto makers are chasing Tesla now. Tesla forced these automakers into making electric cars or be left in the dust. Last year, Tesla out sold MBZ and BMW in their own country. Model S sold over 16,000 cars while MBZ sold over 13,000 cars and BMW sold just over 11,000 cars. With Model 3 rolling out, Tesla will be the number 1 electric car seller this year. Don't be surprised if they are going to be in the green by the end of this year. 

I ran the math and my usage has increased 868 kWh in the last 4 months while my electric bill went up $40 when compared YoY. That's averaging $10/mo. So I actually saved money by converting my PG&E bill from tiered rates to the EV plan rates. Went to fill up the MDX the other day. $58 for 16 gallons, and it will probably last my wife for 10 days to 2 weeks. With the electricity bill averaging $10/mo, no need to go solar and Power Wall yet although I heard there's some nice rebates on Power Wall. 

Roof tiles are not there yet as the cost is still prohibitively expensive.

Flamethrower is just nuts so I'm not buying that. 

I don't see myself not going back to ICE cars. My buddy said the same thing after owning his electric car for 2 months. That's how much I love my Tesla.

__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
mlreits

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 1,033
Reply with quote  #41 
Another month, the delta in electric usage was 271 kWh. Electric bill went up $9.50 compared from March 2017 to March 2018. So far, it's been good. We'll find out the hard truth after this summer. 
__________________
Minh

"Be formless, shapeless like water." Bruce Lee
rickencin

Avatar / Picture

Senior Member
Registered:
Posts: 989
Reply with quote  #42 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickencin


I saw a TV show about the Tesla car factories.  It was all assembly lines and robots.  Automobile manufacturing has been highly studied.  This is not necessarily the Toyota Production System or the Lean Manufacturing way.  Robots don't join quality circles and practice continuous improvement.  Assembly lines don't have the best reputation, even though work needs to move from station to station.  Changing an automated assembly line is a big friggin' deal requiring engineers, scheduled down time and is done only if really necessary.  Human workers are quite clever in spotting better ways to do a job.  Human suggestions often cost next to nothing. The TV show had no mention of Jidoka or Autonomation (automatic specification checks).  The end of the assembly line is the worst place to find defects. No Visual Management or Six Sigma Quality control anywhere to be seen.  

I'm sure robots and assembly lines can build cars.  If will be interesting to see if they can better human beings (cue "John Henry Was A Steel Drivin' Man")

“It is easy to copy something in form but not as easy to capture the spirit that makes it work.” Setsuo Mito, The Honda Book of Management, 1990, p. 31



At the risk of responding to myself it seems that Elon Musk is starting to agree with me.  

Model 3 production delays can be traced back to Tesla having too much faith in robots 

“We had this crazy, complex network of conveyor belts,” Musk recently said during a CBC interview, “… it was not working, so we got rid of that whole thing.”

Musk also took to Twitter and added: “Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated.”

http://start.att.net/news/read/category/news/article/bgr-model_3_production_delays_can_be_traced_back_to_te-rpenskemc

__________________
Rick
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Policy