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larrywww

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Reply with quote  #1 
He makes the intereting point that in most bull markets the beginning and the end of the rally is where the serious appreciation occurs---in the middle of the bull market prices are closer to being flat.

And he argues that a "normal" appreciation for this stage of a bull market is over 20%.

What are you seeing?   Stock market isn't an area of expertise for me.

abc

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Reply with quote  #2 
I would always take what a guy like Ken Fisher says with a grain of salt since he runs a financial firm that relies on people buying investments from him that are predicated on the stock market going up.  Would Ken Fisher ever say sell all your stocks the market is likely to have a negative return the next 10 yrs???   How would that be for his business and commissions??  Not like I am making a prediction, I have no clue what stocks will do in the next 4 yrs.

Whenever you read someones opinion, forecasts, recommendations.....always good to look at how they gain financially from those opinion, forecasts, recommendations?  Reminds of a great quote by Upton Sinclair:

"It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him NOT understanding it"


GeorgeB

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Reply with quote  #3 
Ken Fisher never saw a market he wasn't bullish on. During the last stock bubble a few weeks before the bubble crashed he was predicting the dow would go on to 30000 or something like that. We all know what happened a few weeks later.
niravmd

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Reply with quote  #4 
I also believe there's another 30% left in this stock market.

Of course, like Ken, I like to manage other people's money so you may say I'm biased. 

However, when the market is going up everyone's a genius - it's only when the market crashes do people start clamoring for help, so I'd actually prefer a down market :-)

And unlike Ken, I'm agnostic when it comes to investing. I like to make money when the market provides opportunities, regardless of whether it's real estate or stocks. Old timers on this board might remember, I owned a lot of real estate portfolio during the last cycle. Just like some other members on this forum, I had over-extended myself, borrowing 40x my annual income to speculate. But luckily I bailed when the going was good and didn't wait for a market crash.

Regarding the stock market, typically excessive optimism and FOMO signals a peak. We haven't seen any of that in this entire bull market. Valuations alone aren't sufficient to predict the next bear market. We'll need to wait for the next recession to precipitate that.

But if US stocks are too expensive for you, there are much better valuations in Emerging Markets and International developed markets. 

If you like bonds, look at closed-end funds in Emerging Market bonds and Municipal bonds. They both have pretty decent yields on them, and you can buy them at a discount to the Net Asset Value. They're more volatile than US treasuries, but you get 5-6% yield instead of 2.5%.

Of course, all investments should be considered in the context of your financial picture. And none of this should be considered a recommendation - i may be an advisor, but I'm not your advisor!

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