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larrywww

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Reply with quote  #1 
One of the signs of economic health/disease of an economy involves migration of money to / from a country.

Right now, Venezuela, Turkey, the Soviet Union, Britain and even India to some extent are seeing this kind of negative migration.  By contrast, there is positive migration to Canada, Australia and Dubai (UAE).  The problem with Brexit for Britain has suddenly made France more attractive.

According to the article:

"Balance of payments records show that 10 of the last 12 major currency crises, dating back to the Mexican peso meltdown of 1994, began when residents started sending money abroad, which was typically two years before the currency collapsed. Often politicians blamed “evil” and “immoral” foreign speculators for these crises, but it was the locals who first saw trouble coming.

Right now, this forensic accounting offers clear evidence of looming financial difficulty in only one major country: Turkey. Starting early last year, affluent Turks began effectively moving large sums of money out of the country by exchanging their lira bank deposits for dollars and euros, while foreigners continued to buy Turkish assets.

The 12 percent decline in Turkey’s millionaire population last year was by far the largest of any major economy, and second only to the 16 percent decline in Venezuela, with its small, hyperinflationary economy. Turkey’s millionaires appear to be fleeing both deteriorating financial conditions marked by very high inflation, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on his critics, including those in business."


Interestingly, when  negative migration suddenly halts and turns positive, it is frequently the rich class who have figured out that now is the time to return:

"Savvy locals are also the first to return when a country’s fortunes begin to turn for the better. In seven of the last 12 major currency crises, residents started bringing money back earlier than foreigners."

Interestingly, it might be possible to engage in some degree of market timing by determining whether the smart money is exiting  / returning to a particular country.



https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/opinion/sunday/millionaires-fleeing-migration.html?mabReward=CBMG1&recid=15UCLM69f0omWJbrKTEYDjt9p0t&recp=0&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&region=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
rickencin

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Reply with quote  #2 
People with means will vote with their feet.  Only the poor with no other choice stay and hope that the party line that everything is fine is true.  The politicians are fine the problem is "evil". 

California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration
http://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

In other news Microsoft Windows 10 Edge browser finally allows you to save/backup your Favorites. In perverse Microsoft fashion this feature is found in … Settings under "Import Favorites and other info".  I have favorites going back 15 years.  

You have had some great discussions in the "Are House Still Cheap?" thread.  

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Rick
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