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samzell

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Reply with quote  #31 

You can have data coming out your ears.  Everyone has had it for 6 yrs (Rosen at UC Berkely, Shiller, UCLA Anderson).  Yet there is no collapse happening yet in CA RE prices and we are approaching 2007.

 

If we don't start seeing all hell start breaking loose in 2007, it's time for the bubbleheads to swallow their pride, cowboy up like men and admit it's a soft landing.  Even Ken Rosen at UC Berkeley seems to have finally moved into the soft landing camp.

 

If all hell breaks does break loose, then I stil think the bubbleheads were all pre-mature with their predictions.

 

I admit myself, I was scared we were at the top in the Bay Area like way back in 2001!!!   I admit I have the worst timing of all!

 

 

Subcranium

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Reply with quote  #32 
>>If all hell breaks does break loose, then I stil think the bubbleheads were all pre-mature with their predictions.

That sounds just like something I heard about the Nasdaq bubble once.

Anyone who made a prediction on timing is silly. Just like people who made predictions on timing the pop of the Nasdaq bubble.

The smart people call the presence of a bubble, not when the craziness ends.
taddyangle

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Reply with quote  #33 

This chart was in Shillers book.  It represents an index he created going back to 1890.  You can see, it goes up and then it goes down.  The only exception is back in the 1940s.  Based on history one would have expected a serious correction back then, but there was only a nominal decline and prices basically went sideways for 20+ years.

 

While one might think this could recur, I am not sure how likely it would be for us to see that same scenario play out.  I am not an economist, but I am open to hearing why the market won't decline (25+%) in the next 3-5 years.






 

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #34 

 

If data doesn't matter to some of you - even though it matters to me a lot - then let me go out on a limb, shoot from the hip, ignore historical correlations, and say what I feel:  there will be a hard landing for CA housing prices, not a soft landing.

 

I feel this is going to be the worst real estate downturn in 50 years.

 

The good news is this housing market downturn is going to set up a tremendous buying opportunity in the next 3 to 6 years ... and this is what I expect and what I am personally preparing for.

 

The markets are a great guessing game, aren't they?  And when you apply leverage, the stakes get even greater.

 

So step up to the gambling table everyone, and place your bets.  Let's see who Lady Luck favors during this market cycle. 

 

Oh, those magnificant games of pure chance.  God I love it!

 

Robert Campbell

 

 

 

 

 

 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #35 

 

Taddy,

 

I am open to hearing why the market won't decline (25+%) in the next 3-5 years.

 

I'd like to hear that too.  People are quick to say others are wrong, but they offer no data to defend their own position.

 

Robert Campbell

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