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steveM

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Reply with quote  #1 

I have been intently watching the market for the last year, while waiting out the housing bust.  The daily, weekly, monthly patterns or lack of patterns seems totally nonsensical.   It defies a rational explanation.   I made a post on this subject before and in my mind the only answer was that the government was controlling trading.   I hadn't read that anywhere before and did not know how to verbalize it without seeming like a kook.  It just seemed like the only rational explanation.

 

The PPT is so far the best theory I have found to support this.  Here is a link:

http://www.rense.com/general52/secretsoftheplunge.htm

 

Google "Plunge Protection Team" and you'll get lots more on this.

 

You, the hapless stock investor, does his due diligence on a stock purchase.  Your research leads you to believe the stock is going to go up because of good business conditions or fundamentals for that particular company, or its going to go down for the reverse reasons.   You and lots of others can come to the very same conclusion and invest accordingly. 

 

In a fair market it should be closer to investing than gambling, IF you are diligent and thorough, right?However,  your research and wisdom go out the window when the stock starts inexplicably going in the opposite direction....fast.   That kind of money can make some big moves and easily shake out investors or..... lure them in.    

 

I miss real estate investing.

Gekko

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Reply with quote  #2 

-

 

open a low cost diversified US total market index fund (like Vanguard) and dollar cost average into it every month, reinvest all dividends and capital gains, and ignore the noise and never touch it and you will get rich.  period.

 

enough with the conspiracy theories.

 

 

steveM

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Reply with quote  #3 

Some maybe good advice and then.

 

"Enough with the conspiracy theories???"

 

I am going to stop posting here.   This passive aggressive behavior sucks.   If you've had enough then don't read my post and don't reply.   Its better to say nothing at all if you have nothing good to say.

 

I could care less what you have had enough of.  

 

Sure the housing mess is fun to talk about but something a little different now and then isn't a bad thing.  

 

What to do or not do while the bubble plays out is timely I think.

Paul

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Reply with quote  #4 
That's silly, almost conspiracy stuff. If you truly want to understand how equity and futures markets actually work, read "Trading and Exchanges" by Larry Harris.

Gekko, that's good, simple advice. If everyone young person just entering the workplace followed that advice, in 35 years, regardless of Social Security, if history repeats, they would be sitting pretty. All it takes is the desire to "save" and the discipline to set aside some income every month and pull the trigger.
haggis

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Reply with quote  #5 
I'd also add to the reading list:

'The Intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham
'Where are all the Customers Yachts' by Fred Schwed, Jr.

Oh, and turn off your TV, because all those money shows are entertainment - not sound financial advice. The only 'conspiracy' is the one marketing financial 'products' as investments.....

Cheers.
steveM

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Reply with quote  #6 

I hate poorly scripted movies were the writers feel they need to explain every detail,  assuming the audience is too dumb to grasp basic principles. 

 

So I did not say in my post that I already know conventional wisdom on the stock market (as I suspect most if not all the readers of an investment board do).  

 

Jumping in with an arsenal of conventional, well known information or sources for the same info (books) will bore the audience.

 

Look around you, pay attention, look outside the box.   Have you been watching gold?  Gold manipulation has been covered here well.   Have you been watching ethanol?   Late 2005 GWB... Ethanol is the future, will rid us of our dependence on foreign oil yadayada.  Ethanol stocks surge.  May 2006 before the big drop??... Not enough corn for ethanol production, ethanol uses more energy than it produces, yadayada.  Ethanol stocks tank.  The stage is set for another ethanol push.  

 

"War" Israel invades Lebanon, Oil goes up!!!  Just before peace treaty is announced (potentially lowering oil) BP announces leaky pipes.  

 

Right now you can find 50 investment articles claiming Mexico is running out of oil:

Cantarell, The Second Largest Oil Field in the World Is Dying

Do a little research and you will find.....

MEXICO CITY (AP) - Mexico has made a deep-water oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico that could be larger than the country's giant Cantarell offshore field, President Vicente Fox said.

 

 

This discovery is old news but the timing is not right to put it out there in earnest.  Peak oil, $100 oil, is the plan now.  If Steve Forbes is right and we have $50 oil next year you'll be seeing a lot of news letters telling you how to profit on Mexico's big new discovery!

 

 Yeah go ahead and fire off your conventional wisdom, backed by the masses witty retorts.  We have already heard that stuff and its boring.   Oh yeah, I don't believe everything I read.  I should not have to say that, it should be assumed by the audience.

 

Who wants to read another boring book on the way the market is "Supposed to work". 

 

That link I posted is interesting stuff, whether or not you are open to anything other than herd mentality.  

steveM

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Reply with quote  #7 

Its a brave new world out there.  What worked for your Dad or Gran Dad might not be such a sure bet today.

 

I would much rather expose my soft under belly to those who will assume I'm a fringe nut and provide good warnings to potential investors than suggest sure fire investments that are anything but sure fire.

 

During the 1990s, 55% of equity funds failed, almost four times the 14% failure rate of the 1960s. Should the recent failure rate hold, 2,500 of today's 4,500 equity funds won't be around in 2010.

 

http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20000620.htm

 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,169913,00.html

 

Google "failed mutual fund".

 

Yu can't make this stuff up!

Paul

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveM

I hate poorly scripted movies were the writers feel they need to explain every detail, assuming the audience is too dumb to grasp basic principles.


Jumping in with an arsenal of conventional, well known information or sources for the same info (books) will bore the audience.



The "Trading and Exchanges" book I suggested is far from conventional and in fact the only one of its kind I have ever seen that so thoroughly examines the microstructure of public markets and also covers how governments and exchanges regulate them, which was significant to the context of your original post of this message string.
mike

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveM

I have been intently watching the market for the last year, while waiting out the housing bust.  The daily, weekly, monthly patterns or lack of patterns seems totally nonsensical.   It defies a rational explanation.   I made a post on this subject before and in my mind the only answer was that the government was controlling trading.   I hadn't read that anywhere before and did not know how to verbalize it without seeming like a kook.  It just seemed like the only rational explanation.

 

The PPT is so far the best theory I have found to support this.  Here is a link:

http://www.rense.com/general52/secretsoftheplunge.htm

 

Google "Plunge Protection Team" and you'll get lots more on this.

 

You, the hapless stock investor, does his due diligence on a stock purchase.  Your research leads you to believe the stock is going to go up because of good business conditions or fundamentals for that particular company, or its going to go down for the reverse reasons.   You and lots of others can come to the very same conclusion and invest accordingly. 

 

In a fair market it should be closer to investing than gambling, IF you are diligent and thorough, right?However,  your research and wisdom go out the window when the stock starts inexplicably going in the opposite direction....fast.   That kind of money can make some big moves and easily shake out investors or..... lure them in.    

 

I miss real estate investing.


Wrong in every possible way! Here we go again on the conspiracy theories. I complain about this not because i believe there are no attempts at manipulation or other problems, but because you use this as an excuse to abdicate your responsibilites to do your own due diligence.

 

First what is going on with the market and why. This is really very short term right now. The story goes like this. We all know the fed goes "one to far" on rate increases causing a recession. That's why the negativity. But this negative outlook is confirmed in the housing and now creaping into the retail sector. It will spread as a concensus builds that the consumer will take a vacation. But the biggest short term factor is that it's summer and a bunch of traders are on vacation. We will see a fall rally as some of the stocks have been beaten down too far but beyond that who knows.

 

A key to the market is it trades 6-12 months ahead. So if you see the market tanking now, then the bet is in 6 months there will be a recession. So is your wonderful company suseptible to a recession? Then this wonderful company will get knocked down even though it reported a wonderful quarter.

 

Also remember right now the PE of the market is still historically high. So in one way we are still not done purging the bubble of 2000 excesses out of the market.

 

You obviously have spent a lot of time trying to find someone to blame for your lot in life. You should consider spending the time in a more productive way. You are the epitome of what is wrong with this county. Everyone is looking to blame someone when the real problem is inside.

 

Mike

 

ps - you can also short the market which is a perfectly legitimate way to invest...

 

 

steveM

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Posts: 257
Reply with quote  #10 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveM

I have been intently watching the market for the last year, while waiting out the housing bust.  The daily, weekly, monthly patterns or lack of patterns seems totally nonsensical.   It defies a rational explanation.   I made a post on this subject before and in my mind the only answer was that the government was controlling trading.   I hadn't read that anywhere before and did not know how to verbalize it without seeming like a kook.  It just seemed like the only rational explanation.

 

The PPT is so far the best theory I have found to support this.  Here is a link:

http://www.rense.com/general52/secretsoftheplunge.htm

 

Google "Plunge Protection Team" and you'll get lots more on this.

 

You, the hapless stock investor, does his due diligence on a stock purchase.  Your research leads you to believe the stock is going to go up because of good business conditions or fundamentals for that particular company, or its going to go down for the reverse reasons.   You and lots of others can come to the very same conclusion and invest accordingly. 

 

In a fair market it should be closer to investing than gambling, IF you are diligent and thorough, right?However,  your research and wisdom go out the window when the stock starts inexplicably going in the opposite direction....fast.   That kind of money can make some big moves and easily shake out investors or..... lure them in.    

 

I miss real estate investing.


Wrong in every possible way! Here we go again on the conspiracy theories. I complain about this not because i believe there are no attempts at manipulation or other problems, but because you use this as an excuse to abdicate your responsibilities to do your own due diligence.

 

First what is going on with the market and why. This is really very short term right now. The story goes like this. We all know the fed goes "one to far" on rate increases causing a recession. That's why the negativity. But this negative outlook is confirmed in the housing and now creeping into the retail sector. It will spread as a consensus builds that the consumer will take a vacation. But the biggest short term factor is that it's summer and a bunch of traders are on vacation. We will see a fall rally as some of the stocks have been beaten down too far but beyond that who knows.

 

A key to the market is it trades 6-12 months ahead. So if you see the market tanking now, then the bet is in 6 months there will be a recession. So is your wonderful company susceptible to a recession? Then this wonderful company will get knocked down even though it reported a wonderful quarter.

 

Also remember right now the PE of the market is still historically high. So in one way we are still not done purging the bubble of 2000 excesses out of the market.

 

You obviously have spent a lot of time trying to find someone to blame for your lot in life. You should consider spending the time in a more productive way. You are the epitome of what is wrong with this county. Everyone is looking to blame someone when the real problem is inside.

 

Mike

 

ps - you can also short the market which is a perfectly legitimate way to invest...

 

 

 

Not you again!  Business must be slow today at your fortune telling shack in Oceanside.    What's with you man?   Mike the "stuff words in your mouth", "I can't be bothered to actually read a post before I arrogantly remark on it" know it all.

 

This is an investment board.  I posted a link that has information stock market investors might be interested in reading even if they don't buy into it.  

 

If I say the market is crooked and avoid it, how do you translate that into:

"an excuse to abdicate your responsibilities to do your own due diligence".  

How do you put those two together?   My due diligence is researching investment opportunities from every angle, not just the angle that Schwab presents to the masses.  

 

If I tell you to look both ways before crossing the road would you take it as friendly advice that could keep you from being hurt or would you assume I was just mad at traffic because I've been hit by a car?   Would you accuse me of blaming the auto industry for my problems?   Your ability to put seemingly unrelated items together to come up with a fantastic conclusion leads my mind to wander.

 

If people on this board tell others that RE is a bad investment at the moment does that mean they lost money in RE and are looking for an excuse to abdicate their responsibilities ?  Wow, there are a lot of us with problems huh Mike. 

 

I think buying corn futures is very risky. Would you imply from that statement that I've lost my A$$ in futures?

 

You say you believe there are attempts at manipulation and other problems and then out of the other side of your frosted mini flake, talk as if YOU can intelligently explain the markets actions.   There is so much dishonesty, manipulation, stock option scams, mutual fund shenanigans, market maker indictments, PPT meddling, FTC investigations, etc. etc. going on now you would have to be an ostrich to think you can somehow explain what the market is doing and what it is going to do.   Do you have any idea how many companies are being investigated right now for stock option irregularities?

The very people who we rely on to to run the markets and provide us with reliable information are getting caught with their hands in the cookie jar at an alarming pace.  Things are changing, alarms are sounding and yet it seems your uncanny knowledge of how the market is portrayed to the masses gives you a special insight?    

 

Your 2nd, 3rd & 4th paragraphs are rehashing of stuff most (if not all) people on this board already know.  You may think that you were being enlightening but it was boring, common knowledge. 

 

I believe Crack kills, avoid it all costs!   With your special brand of wisdom would that tell you that.... I am a bitter addict?  Or is it "trying to find someone to blame for your lot in life"?  

 

Here's a clue Mike.  ITS AN INVESTMENT BOARD!  If someone makes a post about investments it may just be a relevant or thought provoking post based on the board's topic and not all telling about that person and their successes or failures.

 

 

Maybe you are great guy Mike, I don't know, but from behind the ego inflating safety of your computer you come across as arrogant.

 

Sorry Paul, this board gets me in an offensive mode.  Too many super smart people with condescending opinions.

 

 

steveM

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Reply with quote  #11 

Forgot this from Mike

 

"ps - you can also short the market which is a perfectly legitimate way to invest..."

 

That's a real gem.  Did you stay up late thinking of that obscure, broadly unknown investing method?  And you belittle me?

 

My point is.   I attempted to bring up an interesting topic on investing to an investing board.   This gets ridiculed.  

 

Would you rather have post after post about common knowledge, rehashed subjects or something possibly new and interesting once and a while?

 

Chime in.   How many of you out there need to be told that "you can also short the market which is a perfectly legitimate way to invest..."

 

How about:

"interesting link, I don't buy it, but it did stimulate my cerebral cortex" thanks for the effort.

 

There is a word for those who contribute nothing and ridicule those who try, what was that????

 

 

mike

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveM

Forgot this from Mike

 

"ps - you can also short the market which is a perfectly legitimate way to invest..."

 

That's a real gem.  Did you stay up late thinking of that obscure, broadly unknown investing method?  And you belittle me?

 

My point is.   I attempted to bring up an interesting topic on investing to an investing board.   This gets ridiculed.  

 

Would you rather have post after post about common knowledge, rehashed subjects or something possibly new and interesting once and a while?

 

Chime in.   How many of you out there need to be told that "you can also short the market which is a perfectly legitimate way to invest..."

 

How about:

"interesting link, I don't buy it, but it did stimulate my cerebral cortex" thanks for the effort.

 

There is a word for those who contribute nothing and ridicule those who try, what was that????

 

 

No you didn't bring up an interesting topic just more .... more complaining about how every one is conspiring against me ....

Mike

 

godann

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Reply with quote  #13 
I think we could all use a little Donkey Bong right now!

http://www.joecartoon.com/pages/donkeybong_anim


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Dr Dan
HiddenMarket

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Reply with quote  #14 

From the NY Sun... "Housing Bubble Horror: Market Has Makings for a Gory Story"

http://www.nysun.com/article/38605


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steveM

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Reply with quote  #15 

Be careful, that funny video could leave open the door for some wild eyed speculation and inference.

 

In that NY Sun article:

 

" Taking note of significant year-over-year price breaks in his home base of Florida, which has been slammed with doubledigit declines in 12 of its 20 metropolitan areas, in one instance (Punta Gorda), as high as 97%,"

 

Is he saying a 97% price decline?  Or am I reading it wrong (Odd wording)? That would be news, 97%, WOW!  

 

I might not have to wait as long as I thought for RE to become a good investment again

steveM

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Reply with quote  #16 

At least we can still do our due diligence.  Figure out the market cap, let's see... shares outstanding times share price, oh and that P/E ratio means a lot, can't forget that.  

 

Unless there's 10 MILLION, 10 MILLION!!!! bogus shares floating around.

 

10 million bogus shares of just one company:

http://www.sgvtribune.com/business/ci_4232832

 

Also from that same Conspiracy theory article:

 

Several companies traded in U.S. markets have complained in recent years that manipulative trading practices were damaging their firms and shareholders. In some instances, lawsuits are pending that seek remedies for the companies or for shareholders. These include Novastar Financial Inc., Biovai, a Canadian pharmaceutical firm, and Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., another Canadian firm. All three firms are traded on the NYSE. Another firm prominent in opposing stock manipulation is Overstock.com, which trades on Nasdaq.

 

On August 14, another Nasdaq-traded company, Private Media Group Inc., based in Spain announced its intention to explore moving to a European exchange, stating it is "extremely unhappy" about "selling pressure on our stock (in U.S. markets) as a result of naked short selling."

 

I'm sure glad I wised up and realized conspiracy theories have no place in intelligent investing,  the Spanish just have no sense of humor.   Due diligence today simply involves personally conducting an audit of a company's shares outstanding and thoroughly researching any dirty hand that can/will come in contact with those shares (or alleged shares) during any and all trading transactions, what's the big deal?   Of course if through the course of your investigations you uncover irregularities involving any of,  said dirty hands,  the audit you just spent 3 weeks conducting has been tainted.

 

Disclaimer, I have never been hurt, maimed, embarrassed or otherwise treated poorly by any broker or money maker selling me shares that did not actually exist, nor hurt by honest hard working stock market miscreants selling shares that did not exist, of companies which I was invested.   And,  I have never been to Spain or been caused harm by Spain or people of Spanish descent.

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