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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #151 
Over a million more people moved out of California from 2006 to 2016 than moved in, according to this report.

And the reason most frequently cited is high housing prices:

California homeowners spend an average of 21.9% of their income on housing costs, the 49th worst in the nation, while renters spend 32.8%, the 48th worst. The median rent statewide in 2016 was $1,375, which is 40.2% higher than the national average. And the median home price was — wait for it — more than double that of the national average.

My take on this?

Don't let this exodus story dominate your investment decisions. 

california out-migration.jpg

Jeff

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Reply with quote  #152 

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
Over a million more people moved out of California from 2006 to 2016 than moved in, according to this report.

And the reason most frequently cited is high housing prices:

California homeowners spend an average of 21.9% of their income on housing costs, the 49th worst in the nation, while renters spend 32.8%, the 48th worst. The median rent statewide in 2016 was $1,375, which is 40.2% higher than the national average. And the median home price was — wait for it — more than double that of the national average.

My take on this?

Don't let this exodus story dominate your investment decisions. 

california out-migration.jpg

 

Super interesting...

 

If I am reading this correctly, we are mostly losing poor people...while the middle to rich people are still moving into CA.


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #153 

Hey Jeff, you're exactly right.

In terms of net-net, the rich are migrating to California and the poor are leaving.

Glad you found it interesting.  So did I. 
Jeff

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Reply with quote  #154 

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell

Hey Jeff, you're exactly right.

In terms of net-net, the rich are migrating to California and the poor are leaving.

Glad you found it interesting.  So did I. 

 

Even with the net loss overall...housing price increases might be fueled by the rich net gain alone? 

Maybe that is sustainable?


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #155 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff

 

 

Even with the net loss overall...housing price increases might be fueled by the rich net gain alone? 

Maybe that is sustainable?



It is my view that no trend in any market is ever "sustainable."  

Everything is cyclical - and the CA housing market tends to move higher and lower like the tides.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #156 
Tesla continues to be in the financial news - and people are starting to compare it to Enron, claiming it is a "zombie" company.

The epic conference calls of both Musk and Skilling were six days apart from their respective all-time high trading day.

Kinda entertaining on a casual basis but it's pure curve-fitting

tesla.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #157 
The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits is the lowest since 1973 - and that's not even adjusting for population growth of 1-2% per year.

I'm not going to speculate what this might imply however it is an extreme reading relative to its history.

unemployment benefits.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #158 
Some men spend a lot of money on clothes to make them look better.

But when you are in shape and buffed, its amazing what you can get away with.

beer belly.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #159 
Come 'on man.  Your company is currently holding almost $120 T in cash.

How come you didn't say the secret to investment success is to "sell greed and buy fear?"

buffett2.jpg

GeorgeB

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Reply with quote  #160 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell

The Top Four Reasons California Is Unsustainable

If government policies have made the economic well-being of California unsustainable, I wonder how CA housing prices would be impacted? 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasdelbeccaro/2018/04/19/the-top-four-reasons-california-is-unsustainable/#137dc6923a23


Hi Robert,

How do you think this is going to play out? Are we going to go the way of Michigan? There seems to be no common sense in sight.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #161 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeorgeB


Hi Robert,

How do you think this is going to play out? Are we going to go the way of Michigan? There seems to be no common sense in sight.


Hey George,  hope you're doing well.

My guess is that the strength of the CA economy is probably too important to the strength of the national economy to let it "go the way of Michigan." 

If CA turned into a Michigan, so would the USA most likely - and I don't think the Banker's and Wall Street billionaires who run the country want that. 

If I had to bet, I would probably bet on rising inflation.  But however it does ultimately play out, I would also bet that the rich will probably stay rich, and most Americans will get poorer. 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #162 
Go long crude oil on price retracements?

Magic 8-Ball says "good bet"

oil.jpg 




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #163 
I'd never trade off any advise from JP Morgan, but they do have the trend right. 

jpmorgan.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #164 
The size of the U.S. economy vs. the CA economy

In 2017, the USA produced $19.4 trillion of economic output -- compared to $2.75 trillion for California.  

That's 14.2% - and as the chart below shows, the CA economy is the same size as the United Kingdom economy, the fifth largest in the world.

Fascinating stuff 

From economist Mark Perry's blog post
usa.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #165 

"Suppose you live in America’s most liberal state. Now suppose you live in the state known as 'poverty capital of America.' But I repeat myself."

This is another interesting blog post from economist Mark Perry - especially if you live in Cali

Read the comments too.



ca.png 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #166 
Health Study: "On average, a 50-year-old man who adopted all of these - healthy diet, not smoking, regular physical activity, moderate alcohol and normal weight - would live 12 to 14 years longer than a man who took on none."

[...]

How many men do this?

"Less than 2% of 50-year old men had all 5 of these low-risk factors." 

Not smoking probably accounts for 10 of those years - but still pretty sad.

health habits.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #167 
Hawaii is an expensive place to live and hang out, but I love it - and have always thought it would be a great place to have a 2nd home.

If it's true that the best time to buy anything is when there is blood in the streets, maybe the best time to buy Big Island real estate is when there is lava in the streets. 

Thank God, this too will pass.

lava_in_the_streets.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #168 
For the "Harry Dent type" housing bears out there:  "The median priced US home will fall to $40,000 by 2030."

The U.S. median priced home was $250,400 in March 2018 (NAR) -- so that would be an 84% fall from today's prices.

housing bears.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #169 

Richard Feynman (1918-1988) was one of the great scientists and physicists of our time - and won a Nobel Prize for his work in how to better understand quantum mechanics.

I wish it were not so, but with respect to investment decision-making, what Feynman said below has been of enormous value to me:

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself —
and you are the easiest person to fool.”

feynman.jpg 

Here's Fenyman's beautiful and heartbreaking letter that he wrote to his deceased wife, who died of tuberculosis at a young age.


This is love. 

 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #170 
Want to be smarter?

Want your kids to be smarter?

Then exercise.

No big surprise. 

[...]

"We already have plenty of scientific evidence showing that exercise is good for our brains.

"   Among other effects, physical activity can strengthen the connections between neurons in the hippocampus, a crucial part of the brain involved in memory and learning.

"Stronger neuronal connections generally mean sharper thinking."

get smarter.jpg
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #171 
The median home price in San Francisco rose to $1.680 million in March - up 24.4% from year ago levels (source:  C.A.R.)

The median priced home was $1,454,500 in Santa Clara Co - up 28.7% YOY.

Stay the course and ride the wave - however momentum investors and flippers had better be super-careful with this one.

san_francisco2.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #172 
A wall of lava engulfing a car in Leilani Estates on the Big Island. 

Good time to buy? 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #173 
Is there anything better than the noise from a fighter jet?

I was there, the guy with a banana in his pocket.

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #174 
As a way out of the Illinois pension crisis, the Chicago Fed proposes raising property taxes by 1% per year for the next 30 years.

Socialist "free lunch" governments never learn and will never reform - as was the case with Detroit.  Illinois is already experiencing a net loss of citizens that are fleeing the state, to a large degree because of high taxes. 

The Chicago housing market has been weakening in 2018.  This may be the tipping point - so if you own investment property there, I suggest you be one of the first ones out when the turn arrives.

Here's the pension situation in California

illinois pensions.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #175 
More vig for states with underfunded pensions

sports betting.jpg 




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #176 
Checking in on bitcoin prices ...

As of May 14th, the trend is still up - based on my trading strategy.

trend_is_up.png 

 


Jeff

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Reply with quote  #177 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
Checking in on bitcoin prices ...

As of May 14th, the trend is still up - based on my trading strategy.

 

 

Excuse my newbie question...but what does "trend is still up" mean and how is that supposed to inform your buying decision?


(On a lark/as an educational experience, I bought a few hundred of bitcoin and Eth last month...so far I made a hundred bucks!  Very volatile though.)

 

 


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #178 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff

 

Excuse my newbie question...but what does "trend is still up" mean and how is that supposed to inform your buying decision?

"The trend is up" means daily prices are currently in a rising trend.

Good luck with your trade Jeff. 




 

 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #179 
The trend for bonds, however still continues to be down - both on a daily and weekly chart, which interestingly are nearly identical.

Don't fight the Fed, right?

The Fed is selling bonds now - and not buying them like before, so that is also helping to push rates higher. 

bonds.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #180 
A lot of young people today have crappy jobs, no money, and a pile of student debt - so maybe this is an opportunity for them to get ahead.

sports gambling.jpg

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