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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #211 
The pension crisis is driving this exodus. 

To help fund the massive shortfall, property taxes in Illinois have been raised to the point where they currently consume 6.7% of household income - the highest % in the nation.

It will be interesting to see if Chicago will be 1st major U.S. city to turn down during the next real estate bust. 

Price growth has been weak lately, so there's a good chance it will.

illinois.jpg
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #212 

I was listening to a Warren Buffett interview on CNBC - and as always, he was his folksy nice guy upbeat self. 

Buffett is a shrewd investor - But do what Warren does, and not what Warren says.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #213 
Comparison between US home prices and wages over the past couple of decades.

real estate.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #214 
Hear! Hear! 

Replace emotions and subjectivity with objectivity.

quant_funds.png

SFL

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Reply with quote  #215 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell

I was listening to a Warren Buffett interview on CNBC - and as always, he was his folksy nice guy upbeat self. 

Buffett is a shrewd investor - But do what Warren does, and not what Warren says.


Regarding "what Warren says":

Below are two articles which would have served astute readers well:

From 1999:

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm

From 2008:

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html


Regarding "what Warren does":

The overwhelming majority of his net worth is and has for over half a century been in a single company, the stock of which is publicly traded and can be purchased by anyone at any time.  

Not too difficult for anyone else to ride those coat-tails, by purchasing said stock (Berkshire Hathaway) when it is not too unreasonably priced.  






RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #216 

The Golden State Warriors beat the Houston Rockets 101-92 in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals - and they did it on the Rocket's home court.

At 1-in-72,000 odds, the Rockets missed 26 straight three-point shots - which probably cost them the game.

This is another example of a rare event occurring - and because of it, the Warriors are playing LeBron in the NBA finals.


currey.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #217 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFL


Regarding "what Warren says":

Below are two articles which would have served astute readers well:

From 1999:

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm

From 2008:

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html


Regarding "what Warren does":

The overwhelming majority of his net worth is and has for over half a century been in a single company, the stock of which is publicly traded and can be purchased by anyone at any time.  

Not too difficult for anyone else to ride those coat-tails, by purchasing said stock (Berkshire Hathaway) when it is not too unreasonably priced.  




Hey SFL, hope you're doing great.

Maybe I should have said "... and not what Warren says - at least not always."

Better?  I think so.

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.

Robert



SFL

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Reply with quote  #218 
RC, I am doing very well and I hope the same is the case with you.

My all-time favorite Robert Campbell post is your 2010 recommendation of Harry Browne's 1973 book:

http://sdcia.websitetoolbox.com/post/great-book-everyone-should-read-4825758

Always good to see posts which add a lot of value!


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #219 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFL
RC, I am doing very well and I hope the same is the case with you.

My all-time favorite Robert Campbell post is your 2010 recommendation of Harry Browne's 1973 book:

http://sdcia.websitetoolbox.com/post/great-book-everyone-should-read-4825758

Always good to see posts which add a lot of value!




SFL,

"How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World" is a great book - and I'm impressed that you liked it so much because I believe that says a lot about you.

For those of you who may not be familiar with the Serenity Prayer, here it is:

serenity_prayer.png 

I just got back from the gym - and it was "dead lift" day.

As per the Serenity Prayer, dead lifts can't ever make me any younger - but they can help me stay young.

 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #220 
Don't just look at the rates - but look at rate of change.

Italy.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #221 
If you want to have a better looking body, do Military Presses.

I've been doing them for 25 years - and they are probably the single best weigh-training exercise for making your shoulders bigger and stronger.

If you are a single guy that seeks to meet hot-looking women, having bigger and stronger shoulders will increase your odds. 

Give yourself every advantage you can is my attitude.      

military presses.jpg 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #222 
Setting:  Game 2 of the 2018 NBA Finals (Warriors vs Cavs)

In case you don't know, Steph Curry of the Warriors is the best three-point shooter in the NBA (and maybe the world).

During practice, he shoots from the half-court line all the time - and makes more than you think.

When Currey goes on a hot streak with his three point shots, the Warrior score starts moving higher like numbers on a pinball machine.  

That dude is very, very good - and the most valuable player on the team. 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #223 
May 2018 saw the fewest Google searches to buy gold since 2007.

Silver demand is at decade lows too.

Good risk/reward for both.

buy gold.jpg

Paul

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Reply with quote  #224 
Robert, The locals here around Lake Norman, N.C., might be madder than a wet hen reading about Seth Curry. They'll tell you to hush your mouth because his brother Stephen, who went to Davidson just down the road, has Seth beat in all the important N.B.A. stat departments.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #225 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
Robert, The locals here around Lake Norman, N.C., might be madder than a wet hen reading about Seth Curry. They'll tell you to hush your mouth because his brother Stephen, who went to Davidson just down the road, has Seth beat in all the important N.B.A. stat departments.


"Lo siento mucho senor" - as we say here in SoCal.

Corrected.

"Steph" made $40 million in 2017 (in salary), and will reportedly make another $35 million from endorsement deals. 

LeBron makes about $45 per year in endorsements - and his net worth was reported to be $265 million in 2017.

Michael Jordan increased his net worth by $350 million in 2017, and it is now $1.65 billion.


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #226 
Social Security’s cost will exceed its income this year, i.e. it will need to start selling treasuries held in its trust fund.

At its current pace, Social Security will go bust in 16 yrs, just as the youngest boomers retire.

Something has to change - or we go right into the wall at 60 MPH. 

social security.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #227 
The upward sloping line represents the golden years of retirement.     

social security2.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #228 
New Car Prices:  What's reported by the CPI vs what happened in the real world

new car prices.jpg 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #229 
A few things I've learned about investing in the last 50 years:

1.  Surround yourself with smart people and listen 10x more than you talk. 

2.  Replace emotions and subjectivity with objectivity.  

3.  Playing defense is just as important as playing offense. 

4.  Air leaves the balloon faster than it goes in.

5.  If you want guarantees, buy a toaster.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #230 
Re:  surround yourself with smart people and listen 10x more than you speak

From James Rickards:

james_rickards.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #231 
When asked where you want to be in 5 years, this is what to say at your job interview.

(Do notice however that the only time the two dogs were wagging their their tails was when they hit shore)  Haha

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #232 
When Good Decisions Result in Bad Outcomes

"If you can't recognize when you've had ‘dumb luck,' you'll never be in a position to correct the way you're making decisions." ~ arnamstreet

+1
good process.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #233 
A Sign of the Times

Suicide rates have climbed dramatically in the past two decades, and half of the states have seen suicide rates go up more than 30 percent.

Obviously, a greater percentage of Americans have becomed depressed and anxious in the last 20 years.  Very sad.

suicide rates.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #234 
Daniel Lacalle:  "Recessions occur because the Fed tightens too late." 

True - and 10 out of the last 13 Fed tightening cycles have resulted in recessions.

recession2.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #235 
Here we go again.

“Home prices are booming. So far, 2018 has posted the strongest growth since 2005. “About 60% of all U.S. metros saw an acceleration in the rate of price increases through February this year,” according to Housing Wire.

From MW

pool of equity.jpg 

turnbullphilip433

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Reply with quote  #236 

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #237 
Forty-six percent of Bay Area residents say they plan to leave in the next few years.

This is ridiculous.  I'll take the under - and even give you odds.

bay area.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #238 
Oh yeah.  You should do deadlifts on a regular basis if you want to stand tall and stay young.    

Deadlifts are mentally and physically exhilarating.  They make you feel strong and invincible.   

deadlifts.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #239 
Why has the suicide rate increased by 30% in the last 20 years?

I was talking to a medical doctor about his - and he suggested I read the book Tribe by Sebastian Junger.

"We have a strong instinct to belong to small groups defined by clear purpose and understanding--"tribes."

"This tribal connection has been largely lost in modern society, but regaining it may be the key to our psychological survival."

This explanation makes total sense to me - and its why I try to make both face-to-face and eye-to-eye contact with my business clients (my "tribe") - and my friends - on a regular basis.

And by simply calling people on the telephone (instead of texting or emailing them) will not only amaze most of the people you call - but it will genuinely strengthen the connection you have with them, and everybody likes it.

It's good for business - and even better for your emotional well-being.

tribe.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #240 
Speaking from personal experience (I'm a Boomer), I think people were generally happier in the 1970's than they are today. 

Life seemed to be easier and more chill back then.  Maybe the hair and the music had something to do with it.

"Baby Come Back" by Player (1977)

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