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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #241 
re:  Bitcoins

The prevailing price trend continues to be down - and we just took out the April lows

Interestingly, when the price of bitcoins is rising, people think the price will go to $1 million.  When they are falling, to $0.00.

bitcoins9.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #242 
June 13, 2018:  Fed Chairman Jay Powell just finished opining on the state of the U.S. economy after the Fed Funds rate was raised 0.20% to 1.95%.

"It's in great shape," said Powell.

But to see why I generally ignore the pronouncements of Fed chiefs, look at the illustration below.

Pay special attention to what the Bernank said in Jan 2008.  The U.S. economy was already in recession.

ben_b.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #243 

After hedonic quality adjustments, the Bureau of Labor Statistics claims new car prices have not gone up in 20 years. 

new car prices.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #244 

XHB fell from $47 to $39 this year - which is a decline of almost 20% - and this was added ammunition for housing bears who claim that a downturn in U.S. housing prices is right around the corner.    

However since May, the price trend in XHB has changed from down to up - even in the face of rising rates.

How long this new rising trend will last is anybody's guess - but it will be interesting to watch.

XHB2.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #245 
The unemployment rate (3.8%) is at a 48 year low.

When the cycle reverses, it will not bode well for stocks.

unemployment rate.png 

Paul

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Reply with quote  #246 
I think the only people without jobs might just be the unemployable.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #247 
FinTwit

The top 10% are doing fine - so 18 more peeps bailing water would be more realistic.

fin twit.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #248 
I know this is only bro science, but whenever you are feeling down, go lift some weights or run up some steps.

I'm not a medical doctor but it does work. 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #249 
Russian official gold holdings are now 160% of Russian US Treasury Bond holdings - as compared with 16.5% in August 2009.

Trump respects gold as an asset class, so I'm pretty sure he's aware of this trend.

russian gold2.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #250 
May 2018:  New home building permits and housing starts remain in rising trends.

Among other things, this lowers the odds of a recession

housing starts.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #251 
From economist David Rosenberg ...

"The end-game retaliation comes via a global boycott of the Treasury auctions. Foreign entities fund half the US fiscal deficit, which is set to double. Imagine the locals funding their own budget gap! This forces the savings rate up at the expense of spending. Recession follows."
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #252 
June 19, 2018:  North San Diego Real Estate Investors club

My friend Bruce Norris, a real estate investor and fellow housing market analyst, spoke last night - and here is his forecast for CA home prices:

1.  CA housing prices will not fall like they did after the 2006 downturn because home loans are more restrictive today than they were during 2000-2006.  Thus, there will not be another "foreclosure glut" - which means there will be minimal price damage after CA housing prices hit a peak. 

2.  Construction of new CA homes (i.e. supply) has not kept up with demand.  This acts as a support to
current price levels.

3.  When the CA housing affordability index hits 17, that will signal the peak.

4.  If we have a 'tech bust" in the Bay area, any damage to Bay area housing prices will be localized - and will not spill over to other CA housing markets.

5.  The Fed is raising rates so they can lower them 4-5 percentage points to fight the next recession.  Norris expects mortgage rates to fall to the 2% range during that time - which will be a great time to refinance your mortgage loans.


brucenorris.jpg   

Homeloanwisdom

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Reply with quote  #253 

I know this is only bro science, but whenever you are feeling down, go lift some weights or run up some steps.
I'm not a medical doctor but it does work.  


For those of you who don't like going to the gym to lift weights I'd recommend taking some workout classes. While for some, me, it's hard to stay consistently motivated to lift weights, All I have to do now is just show up! I've been all about classes for the past 10 years. By  just showing up I know I will get a 50 minute workout.  Be  it yoga, body pump, sculpting or core workouts its like playing organized sports again in that you've got a coach/instructor and peers that keep you motivated. I'm at my community club in Scripps Ranch but the 24 Hour Fitness programs are great too.

Strength Training image


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #254 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeloanwisdom
 I know this is only bro science, but whenever you are feeling down, go lift some weights or run up some steps. I'm not a medical doctor but it does work. 


For those of you who don't like going to the gym to lift weights I'd recommend taking some workout classes. While for some, me, it's hard to stay consistently motivated to lift weights, All I have to do now is just show up! I've been all about classes for the past 10 years. By  just showing up I know I will get a 50 minute workout.  Be  it yoga, body pump, sculpting or core workouts its like playing organized sports again in that you've got a coach/instructor and peers that keep you motivated. I'm at my community club in Scripps Ranch but the 24 Hour Fitness programs are great too.

Strength Training image


Thom, you are exactly right. 

Core workouts will also get you in great shape - and doing lunges with weights (as shown in the pic) will completely kick your butt.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #255 
Cash is looking more and more attractive relative to stocks.

The spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and the 1-month T-Bill yield is approaching zero for the first time in a decade.

However the primary trend for the stock market is still up - and stock market returns have historically trounced the returns you get from T-Bill by a wide margin. 

dividends.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #256 
Sign of a pending housing market downturn?

Probably not.  Most likely just a housing market bear seeing what he wants to see on a micro-scale.

noise.jpg 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #257 

"Delete Your Account Warns Virtual Reality Founding Father"

"... Jaron Lanier tells people to delete your social media accounts due to the strong correlation between persistent social media usage and a dramatic societal rise in depression, anger, and anxiety that he says is the result of internet-induced modified forms of behavior."


delete social media.jpg 
Maybe this helps to explain this?

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #258 
"Being a successful investor is having the crowd agree with you later on."

- Jim Grant

+1

jim grant.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #259 

Social Security benefits buy 34% less than in 2000, study shows.

cola.png
This is why Grandma is still working.


 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #260 
June 22, 2018:  As per the warning, Bitcoin price has fallen 10% after taking out the April lows ($6,800)

bitcoins9.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #261 
June 21, 2018, Los Angeles Times article"The Southern California median home price surged 8.2% in May from a year earlier, hitting a new all-time high of $530,000, according to a report Thursday from CoreLogic."

Sorry kids - buy now or be priced out forever. 

LA Home prices.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #262 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above its 200-day moving average for 500 consecutive trading days, the 7th longest run in history.

IOW, it's still a bull market for stocks. 

dow jones.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #263 
N.A.R.'s "Housing Affordability Index" - updated through May 2018.

Housing "un-affordability" tends to be one of the most widely used arguments put forth by
today's housing bears.


affordability index2.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #264 
The best investment you will ever make is an investment in your health.

And know this:  Its easier to stay in shape than get in shape - and this is especially true as you get older.

So develop a plan for exercise and diet that you can follow for a lifetime.

Here's a 4-week beginner's guide to lifting weights:

Nassim Taleb would likely approve because it includes deadlifts

beginnrs guide.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #265 
WSJ:  June 23, 2018

Older Americans have replaced income growth with debt in last 20 years

Helps to explain this

Recent report from Harvard University:  In 2035, households with members aged 65 and older will account for a full one-third of the homes in the country.

income_growth.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #266 
December 17, 2017 (Reuters) - Pension fund giant CalPERS said on Monday that it would increase its allocation of fixed income to 28 percent from 20 percent in order to reduce risks in its $346 billion portfolio.

This is what can happen when a bond investment goes against you.

safe.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #267 
Fear, greed, and markets ...

Warren Buffett will tell you he's not a market timer however he has made a fortune by "buying fear."

He has a repeatable process in place - i.e. "a system" - of frequently buying when everyone else is selling.

And how do you know when to sell?

"Sell greed" says Buffett.

Thus, to best a better investor, focus on behavioral factors.


warren buffett3.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #268 
WSJ:  Credit card rates are now at an 18-year high.

credit card.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #269 
Is the stock market ready to make a move to the downside?

Tom McClellan is a good trader/analyst - but this chart he created is pure curve-fitting, which can be a dangerous way to trade.

It shows the stock market roughly following the footsteps of Bitcoin's price.

curve filling.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #270 
Fed's Bostic to Hear Case for Excluding Housing From Inflation Index

This is beyond ridiculous. 

If we exclude all the essentials needed to live, and only look at the price of TV's and computer monitors, maybe we can get the rate of inflation down to zero.

rent.png

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