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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #271 

WSJ:  June 22, 2018:   This is real folks - and explains this.


real_001.png 


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #272 
"Mr. Campbell, if everybody was as healthy as you, I would be out of a job." 

That's what Dr. Simon (my VA doctor) told me on June 25, 2018 when I went in for my annual physical. 

Here's what I do to get check-ups like that. 

Don't invite bad health when you can avoid it.
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #273 
WSJ:  June 27, 2018

With mortgage rates rising, can home prices keep climbing at 7% per year if wages are only climbing at half that rate?

Pretty sure the answer is "no" but the variable is the timing. 


wages.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #274 

"Sell Greed"- Warren Buffett

Puck Magazine, May 22, 1901

sell greed.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #275 
College World Series - Oregon State vs. Arkansas - 2018

June 27 - Game 2 of best of three series.

9th inning go-ahead home run by Oregon State, which forced a Game 3 tonight.

Who doesn't love this?

BTW, all players on both teams are really, really good - and quite a few have already committed to joining Major League ball clubs.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1012169906048008193
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #276 
3.4% GDP growth anticipated for Q2 2018.

The real estate sector (construction, sales, renting, and leasing) represents 13% of GDP - and this sector has been gaining strength recently.
 
GDP.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #277 
Pending Home Sales - May 2018

Down for 5th straight month on year-over-year basis.

Rising risks for real estate?

pending sales.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #278 
"Study hard what interests you the most in the most undisciplined, irreverent and original manner possible."
—Professor Richard Feynman

Applies to investing.  You'll be amazed what you'll learn and discover.  All that is required is curiosity.

study hard.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #279 
Based on those who subscribe to an 18-year real estate cycle, the next peak in housing prices will occur in 2024.

real estate cycle.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #280 
Best AC/DC song ever.

"You Shook Me All Night Long" - 1980

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #281 
Fear and Greed metrics ... 

Latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor sentiment survey for the stock market declines to 103 from its recent high of 140/139 in late 2017 or beginning of 2018

Sentiment indicators can help investors identify meaningful turning points in the markets - and execute this and this

sentiment.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #282 
If you want optimal health, you have to lift weights AND do cardio. 

Lifting weights keeps your body strong, healthy and looking young.

Cardio keeps your weight down and strengthens your heart. 

As far as "cardio" goes, walking is excellent - but running up steps or hills is better.  

gravel_hill2.png 

Today is Sunday, and it's cardio day - so I ascended this hill eight times.

If you have trouble waking up in the morning, I suggest you try this.   

It's called high-intensity interval training (HIIT) and I guarantee you'll feel awake and invigorated.

Interesting how your body changes as you get older.  At age 65, I could run up this hill 8 times. 
Six years later at age 71, I still go up it 8 times - but only by walking as fast as I can.

Still good - but aging sucks.

You only get what you give.

Jeff

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Reply with quote  #283 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
Pending Home Sales - May 2018

Down for 5th straight month on year-over-year basis.

Rising risks for real estate?

pending sales.jpg 

 

How do you interpret this?  Does it suggests anything more than a restriction in inventory?  If so, what?


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #284 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff

 

How do you interpret this?  Does it suggests anything more than a restriction in inventory?  If so, what?



Hey Jeff, I hope you're doing well. 

The fall in pending home sales is a slightly unfriendly trend WRT price appreciation.   


What is less certain is whether the low inventory of homes for sale has anything to do with it. 
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #285 
The CoreLogic Home Price Index jumped 7.1 percent annually in May - the biggest jump in four years. 

Behavioral factors (e.g. FOMO) at work ... or lack of homes for sale?

big jump.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #286 
Economics 101 - what they teach you in academia
 
When prices rise, demand falls.  When prices fall, demand rises.

Market Economics 101 - what happens in the real world

When prices rise, demand rises.  When prices fall, so does demand.
Jeff

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Reply with quote  #287 

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
The CoreLogic Home Price Index jumped 7.1 percent annually in May - the biggest jump in four years. 

Behavioral factors (e.g. FOMO) at work ... or lack of homes for sale?



Yes...that IS the question isn't it?

How would you determine the answer?


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #288 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff



Yes...that IS the question isn't it?

How would you determine the answer?



Hey Jeff,

It's hard if not impossible to answer that question with any certainty - however the majority of mainstream real estate analysts continue to say it's the low inventory of homes for sale that is causing prices to rise like they are - which in my view are merely personal opinions. 


Whether these opinions are right or wrong has little or no influence on those of us who are "quants."  


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #289 
Have a Happy Fourth of July everybody!

It's a day to celebrate this great country we live in and the freedoms our founding fathers wanted for us ... and it's also a day to maybe enjoy a margarita (or two) with a new friend that you discover hanging out in your back-yard.

To celebrate our freedoms, most Americans like the sight and sound of fireworks going off on the Fourth - but I prefer the sight and sound of a U.S. fighter jet going by.

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #290 
Fourth of July message from Nassim Taleb:  Why to be an entrepreneur.

+100

Being in full control of your own destiny may be scary at times, but it is the essence of being truly free. 

I know because I've been self-employed my entire life. 

One good business model to follow is this: Create your own products that benefit other people and charge money for them. 

Too bad they don't teach stuff like this in school.

Selling a product is scalable - selling your time is not. 

Selling a product can make you rich and famous like Taleb.

It also gives you more hours at the gym.

  taleb3.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #291 
July 4, 2018:  WSJ

Workers are choosing to leave their jobs at the fastest rate since the internet boom. As a result they’re seeing roughly 30% larger annual pay increases than those who stayed put.

voluntary departure.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #292 

Every housing market has the ability to surprise you – to the upside and downside.


denver.png 


dallas.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #293 
Here's Nassim Taleb's advice to young people on how to save the world.

Taleb describes salary jobs as being as addicting as heroin.

From Skin in the Game

Yes I do love Taleb


get into business.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #294 

A rising tide clearly doesn't lift all ships equally.

"There is increasing recognition that GDP measures or GDP per capita are insufficent when it comes to understanding the true economic well-being of households."  (Many of us knew this a long time ago)

This percentage (79%) is staggering - and helps to explain why a lot of Americans are really, really p**sed off.

Could also be contributing to this wealth.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #295 
Good use of energy.

Builds core and shoulder strength. 

PS:  This exercise will kick your ass. 

kettle bell swing.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #296 
July 8, 2018:  San Diego weather is incredible right now.  

80 degrees and humid - just like Hawaii.

Paul, I don't know if you're around - but eat your heart out buddy.  I know you wish you were here in SoCal with the home boys.  

hot_and_humid.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #297 
"Comparing the first half of 2018 to 2017, the median house sales price in San Francisco increased by an astounding $205,000."

Wonder if momentum investors are jumping in right now?  

Chart source: Paragon Real Estate Group.

san francisco2.jpg

liam1callum

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Reply with quote  #298 

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #299 
WSJ:  The number of eyes on the yield curve is growing.

yield curve2.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #300 
Checking in on the bears ...

Harry Dent:  February 2017 on "Why Real Estate Will Never Be the Same"

Take this, Mr. Dent. 

One of my real estate buddies sent me a Harry Dent newsletter a couple of years ago, and Dent was predicting U.S. housing prices would decline 60-80% depending on the city.

harry dent.jpg

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