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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #301 

The talking heads on CNBC were recently talking about how more and more websites were going to a subscription service - and behind paywalls.

Why not? 

Kids pay to go to college - and they pay a lot.

If it's information that's important to them, people will pay for it.  I know I do. 
  

paywall sites.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #302 
SFL - July 9, 2018 (in response to Jeff's comment/question on another thread)

"... all of those return statistics are backward-looking and tell you nothing about what to expect in the next five years."

+1,000

Very intelligent comment, sir!
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #303 
Truck freight prices - along with real estate prices, medical prices and everything else prices are increasing faster than is being reported by the CPI.

Source:  Financial Times

trucking.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #304 
REIT ETFs have been one of the strongest market sectors since March 2018.

The chart below shows how the Vanguard REIT (VNQ) has performed vis-a-vis the S&P 500 (SPY). 


reits22.png

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #305 
If you cannot explain something in simple terms, you don't understand it. —Professor Richard Feynman

So true.

simple terms.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #306 
July 10, 2018 - Thai Cave Live Update: After 18 days, all 13 rescued. 

Such good news.  Thanks God - I just knew you would help save those boys!

thai boys.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #307 
It takes five years to learn how to make money;
and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it.
-- Nassim Taleb (July 11, 2018)

More Taleb GOLD - and something not taught in school.

Relates to this
 
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #308 
Wealth is whatever gives us value.

For most people it's money, for some of us it's fitness, but for others, it's bling. 

Here's Rapper Lil Jon flashing a smile that shows his $50,000 worth of diamond and platinum dental work.

teeth.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #309 
Sophisticated investors focus more on risk than they do "pie-in-the-sky" profits.

Most friends who frequent this discussion board already know this - but for those of you who don't,
I suggest you read Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein.  

It is an excellent portrayal of the risks that are forever lurking.   

against the gods.jpg 

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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #310 
Consumer prices rise in June at the fastest rate since 2012.

Wages are rising - and the tariff wars are also a contributing factor.

Bloomberg

consumer prices.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #311 
ChartProbability of 4 (or more) Fed rate hikes in 2018

Not surprising - and this doesn't help. 


ratehikes2.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #312 
With two 40-50% draw downs, 2000-2009 was the worst decade for stocks in 110 years.

The 2006-2012 fall in housing prices was the worst since WWII. 

With bigger booms and bigger busts, it appears the world has changed in the last 20 years.

stocks.jpg 

SFL

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Reply with quote  #313 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertCampbell
With two 40-50% draw downs, 2000-2009 was the worst decade for stocks in 110 years.

The 2006-2012 fall in housing prices was the worst since WWII. 

With bigger booms and bigger busts, it appears the world has changed in the last 20 years.

stocks.jpg 


Very interesting table! 

For the stock investor, the 1970s must have felt similarly miserable to the 2000-2009 decade, and the 1960s must have felt great until 1968.  So we essentially had approximately two great decades (1950 - 1968) followed by a miserable 70's (1968 - 1982); then another approximately two great decades (1982 - 1999) followed by the miserable 2000 - 2009 period.

If the current market doesn't roll over for another year and a half, 2010 - 2019 might end up looking quite good.  It will be interesting to see where it ends up on that real-returns-by-the-decade table.    

Interesting that real stock market returns were positive in the 1930's, in spite of the 1929 - 1932 crash.  The dividend yields in both the '30s and the '70s were quite high, no doubt offsetting the lack of stock price appreciation.  Additionally, deflation in the 1930's must have contributed to the positive real returns in that decade.  

Value Line published a chart about 12 years ago, showing market conditions for the years 1920 - 2005.  They used the DJIA rather than the S&P500 and it is not inflation-adjusted, although the detail in the columns include the average S&P500 levels, average dividend yields and real LT Aaa corporate bond yields for each year, among lots of other interesting information.  Here it is; this is one of my favorite charts:

http://www3.valueline.com/pdf/valueline_2006.pdf


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #314 
Interesting survey - and here are the results after 560 votes.

92% of all voters indicated they knew less than 5 guys. 

I know its just "survey" but if it is even close to being accurate, these are pretty sad results

The good news is this is something any guy can fix if he wants to do so.


happy.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #315 
Univ of Mich--home buying index hits weakest level since the crisis.

Good data point for the bears.

Steph Tomboy

steph.jpg 

brycewheeler

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Reply with quote  #316 
Thanks Robert Campbell !!!   You have been supplying a steady supply of great economic charts for us on a broad range of topics --  very thoughtful of you.   Please keep it up.   I, for one, am very grateful.

Bryce
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #317 
Quote:
Originally Posted by brycewheeler
Thanks Robert Campbell !!!   You have been supplying a steady supply of great economic charts for us on a broad range of topics --  very thoughtful of you.   Please keep it up.   I, for one, am very grateful.

Bryce


Hey Bryce, hope you're doing fantastic!

Thank you very much. 

You've always been kind and appreciative, and these traits do not go unnoticed.  


Robert


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #318 
As a % of GDP, corporate profits have almost never been higher and money paid to employees has almost never been lower.

Everything is cyclical - as you can see here. 

WSJ


RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #319 

The Carpe Diem chart of the century makes the rounds at the Federal Reserve.

As color coded by Mark Perry, who is a great free market economist (Univ of Michigan) ...

"Blue lines
= prices subject to free market forces.

Red lines
= prices subject to regulatory capture by government. 

Food and drink is debatable either way."

Mark's conclusion
: "Remind me why socialism is so great again."

price changes.png 



RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #320 
Mark Rzepczynski:  "The relationship between financial and real assets is at extremes.

Increase investment exposures to commodities and real estate and away for financial assets."

Good data point for those bullish on housing prices. 

July 14, 2018:  Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views

commodities2.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #321 
Dietary fat suppresses hunger. 

Dietary sugar increases hunger.

The sugar effect is the stronger of the two.

If you want to lose weight (or stay where you are), control what you eat accordingly.

The Case Against Sugar


fat.jpg 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #322 
Surprisingly good book on how to make better decisions. 

Annie-Duke is smart and played professional poker at a high level for 22 years.

I've tried a few of her "betting" suggestions - and they work.

annie duke.jpg 

Homeloanwisdom

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Reply with quote  #323 
Quote:
Thanks Robert Campbell !!!   You have been supplying a steady supply of great economic charts for us on a broad range of topics --  very thoughtful of you.   Please keep it up.   I, for one, am very grateful.Bryce


Hey Robert - I too am appreciative of your postings. I have read and made a part of my library a few of your book recommendations. You do confound me at times since you'll post both growth & contraction data. Which way is the economy, real estate, equities market trending?...... (rhetorical question).

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Office: (858) 485-0462 | Mobile: (858) 243-4083 |Email: thom@sibloans.com
When Borrowing Money, PRICE MATTERS. Mortgage Brokers are the best source of loans for consumers.




RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #324 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homeloanwisdom


Hey Robert - I too am appreciative of your postings. I have read and made a part of my library a few of your book recommendations. You do confound me at times since you'll post both growth & contraction data. Which way is the economy, real estate, equities market trending?...... (rhetorical question).


Hey Thom, thank you very much.  That was very nice of you.

BTW, I hope you're still kicking ass with the "core" training.  

To look good and stay healthy, us older guys don't really have a choice, do we?  //smile
rickencin

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Reply with quote  #325 
While real poker players are very good at combinatorics, they extensively use tells and the history of 
the style of each opponent.  Even online, some players like to stay in the pot (action) and bluff often, some only
bet strong hands and some try to be random.  Being random is very hard.  Taking college statistics
has kept me out of casinos.  Betting against the house is just stupid.  

I'm reminded of a cheeky summary of poker strategy:

The Quantum Magician
by Derek Kunsken, Fantasy & Science Fiction  January/February 2018, p. 18

“A con man called Gander ad once taught him that there were only three bets.

Sometimes, you play the cards.

Sometimes, you play the player.

Sometimes, you just throw the dice.”

I made a coin flip spreadsheet that allows the coin to come up heads an average of 1% to 99% of the time, not just 50%.
For only a few flips you can get lucky and win, no matter the percentages. So beginner's luck does exist.  After a few thousand flips
the average tends to follow the percentages quite well.  The graphs look just like stack market graphs.  
There is no such thing as long termer's luck.  How can a casino tell if you are cheating?  If you are winning in the
long run, against the odds, you are cheating.  (Counting cards in Blackjack is erroneously considered cheating by casinos.)

In business is it hard to go wrong eliminating all waste and giving your customers the best product at the lowest price.


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RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #326 

From Rick ...

"In business is it hard to go wrong eliminating all waste and giving your customers the best product at the lowest price."



+100

Take note everybody ...

After your health, the 2nd best investment you will likely ever make is owning a good business.

Short story about Ed Thorp, author of Beat the Dealer:

Ed was once asked how much money he could make playing blackjack. 

"About $300,000 per year" he said.

Then why don't you that, Mr. Thorp?

"Because I can make 10 times that much running a hedge fund."
RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #327 

Lesson for investors ...

Past correlations - even if strong - don't always continue into the future. 

That's some divergence.

mind the gap.jpg

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #328 
Can money buy a winning baseball team?

Charts shows win ratio vs. money spent - for both American and National Leagues.

Source: Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors

baseball.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #329 
Excellent stock market indicator to keep tabs on: NYSE Advance/decline line.

Chart source:   Lance Roberts

In October 1987, this timing indicator helped me exit the stock market about a week before Black Monday


ad line.png 

RobertCampbell

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Reply with quote  #330 
This is an understatement - but it's what you can expect from a Fed Chairman.

powell2.jpg

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